Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Pick – MLB August 4, 2022

The Houston Astros are in Ohio for a four-game series against the Cleveland Guardians. Both clubs are coming off strong outings on Wednesday. The Guardians took care of rookie Tommy Henry after he made it through the first 4 innings relatively unscathed.

Cleveland poured it on for a 7-4 win at Progressive Field. Amed Rosario had a big game with 3 RBIs on 2-for-4 hitting and a monster long ball. The Guardians can win the AL Central despite a mediocre record of 54-50. That’s good enough to put them just a game back of the Minnesota Twins.

The best record in the division is held by the Twins at 55-49. That’s the worst mark by a team currently with leading claims. In most divisions, this record would only be good for third.

That’s great news for the Guardians, though, who are only a game off the lead. They’ve just been too hot and cold to take seriously as a top contender in the American League. Across their last ten outings, the Guardians have won six of ten attempts.

Winning six games for every ten outings this season sounds accurate for the Guardians.

The Astros have full control of their division, as they enter Thursday with a record of 68-38 following a 6-1 win over the Boston Red Sox. The ‘Stros struck early, as they took a 4-0 lead going into the top of the 3rd.

Jose Urquidy had one of his best performances of the season. Urquidy went 7 innings with 2 hits and no runs in a 6-1 victory. The ‘Stros have a stranglehold on the AL West, with an 11-game lead over the Seattle Mariners.

This looks like a stone-cold lock for the Astros in the AL West. They have loftier expectations than winning another divisional title, though.

Houston had to win yesterday to avoid a sweep, so they’ll be looking for a better series at Progressive Field. They’ve been lazy recently with four wins in ten outings.

Justin Verlander gives them a big chance in the series opener in Cleveland. Zach Plesac is scheduled to toe the rubber for the Guardians. Head below for our best Astros vs. Guardians prediction on August 4, 2022.

Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Houston Astros -1.5 (-115) -190 Over 7.5 (-115)
Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-105) +156 Under 7.5 (-105)
Team Data Houston Astros Cleveland Guardians
Overall Record 68-38 54-50
Away/Home Record 34-21 27-20
Batting Average .241 .252
Batting Average Away/Home .232 .246
Runs Per 9 4.56 4.48
Team ERA 3.01 3.89
Team ERA Away/Home 3.27 3.62

Astros vs. Guardians Prediction:

The Astros have the perfect starter to have on the mound to follow up Jose Urquidy with on Thursday night. They’ve been up and down as of late, but Urquidy and Justin Verlander could give this team a big lift with back-to-back lockdown performances.

JV is still one of the best in the majors as a 39-year-old.

He spent almost two years away from playing because of an injury. Verlander wasted little time jumping back into form on the mound. He’s now looking at adding another Cy Young to his mantle.

Most sportsbooks have Verlander listed as the favorite to win the AL Central. It’s going to be close, as there isn’t a clear favorite. The hotter pitcher over the next two months will win.

Verlander is going into Progressive Field with an ERA of 1.81 and a 0.87 WHIP. He’s on fire recently, with an ERA of 0.87 and a 0.87 WHIP in his previous three starts.

He’s also pitched lights out on the road, posting a 1.72 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.

Those look like Cy Young numbers in my book. The Guardians are hitting .233 with 1 home run through 67 at-bats. This shouldn’t be a particularly tough assignment for Verlander.

Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five games
  • 13-4 overall in their previous 17 games versus a right-handed starter
  • 9-2 overall in their previous 11 games versus the Guardians
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five games at Cleveland
  • 36-15 overall in their previous 51 games on a Thursday


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 2-9 overall in their previous 11 games versus the Astros
  • 0-5 overall in their previous five games versus the Astros at home
  • 6-3 overall in their previous nine games
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games at home
  • OVER is 5-0 in their previous five games at home

  • Zach Plesac has a tough assignment with Verlander on the other side tonight. Plesac has been in decent form, with an ERA of 4.33 and a 1.29 WHIP. His recent work hasn’t been decent, though.

    Plesac posted an ERA of 6.59 and a 1.54 WHIP in his previous three starts.

    He’s coming off a shoddy performance at the Trop last week. Plesac was hit for 7 hits and 5 earned runs in 5 innings on the hill.

    The ball has been flying off his bat, with 3 home runs yielded in his previous 13.2 innings of pitching. The Rays tagged him for 2 long balls. Note that the ‘Stros are third in the majors with an average of 1.41 home runs a game.

    Plesac may be fine Thursday night at Progressive Field. However, he’s going to require better than fine to keep pace with Verlander. The Astros in a 5-3 or 6-3 final looks good.


    Astros vs. Guardians Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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