It was another good night for me, as we ran the weekly record to 3-1 with an easy cover on the OVER in the Toronto vs. Angels game. It’s always a nice feeling when the OVER is 8.5 and it is 4-4 in the 5th. You can call it a night and turn off the light – barring a Bud Selig All-Star Game like intervention, another run will score at some point – and it doesn’t really matter when. You’ve cashed a winning ticket.
Let’s try to make it four of five this week with another OVER/UNDER play, and a game featuring one of my favorite under-the-radar value teams for the remainder of the 2013 season (or at least until the betting public catches up and the lines tighten…)
On to tonight’s free pick…
Cleveland Indians -131 at Miami Marlins +121 (Total: 7.5)
Zach McAllister (4-6, 3.48 ERA) vs. Jacob Turner (3-3, 2.65 ERA)
I’m loving the value of the Miami Marlins these days. They’ve won six of their last nine games, and they very quietly have one of the most dynamic young pitching staffs in Major League Baseball. Yet in nearly every game that Fernandez isn’t pitching, they are still underdogs. I was fully on board with the citizens of Miami who wanted to go after ownership following their bait-and-switch roster moves to raise public sentiment for the funding of their stadium. But all of a sudden, looking at the terrible season of the Toronto Marlins (sic.) and the recent play of the Marlins… perhaps it wasn’t so bad after all.
Miami is still an underdog, even tonight with Turner and his sub-three ERA on the hill at home tonight. Just looking at the pitching matchup, it jumps up as a pretty good value. Interestingly enough, despite the fact that Cleveland is in the thick of the playoff hunt and the Marlins have the worst record in the National League, over their last 54 games, they have identical 30-24 records.
That said, the Marlins still tote a .228 team batting average, which is dreadful. I think they’ll have some challenges with McAllister tonight and will have a tough time putting up runs. I also think they won’t need to many. Jacob Turner has been great this season, and though he hasn’t earned a win in his last three starts and has had some struggles (1.44 WHIP, 3.68 ERA), he has still not been too far from where he needs to be. He has thrown quality starts in three of his last four outings.
I like the Fish tonight at home, and am going to double up on this game staying underneath the seven and a half run threshold.