Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros Pick – MLB July 5, 2022

The Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros continue their four-game series at Minute Maid Park tonight. The Astros stole a win after overcoming a 5-0 deficit last night. A 5-run lead is never safe against the Astros, especially when only 3 innings are completed.

The Royals’ offense did their best to make a game out of it, but the bullpen couldn’t hold. They were behind 6-3 going into the bottom of the 8th and still found a win. Yordan Alvarez walked the Royals off with a solo bomb in the bottom of the 9th.

It was a wasted performance from Royals’ starter Jonathan Heasley. Heasley had a solid night for the Royals, with 3 hits and 1 earned run across 6 innings. However, the bullpen did a nice job of messing it all up.

The Royals dropped to 29-49 and 14.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Minnesota leads the division with a 3.5-game lead on the Cleveland Guardians following last night’s action.

KC won a World Series in 2015, but have regressed since then.

It’s tough to remain competitive when free agents don’t want to sign with the Royals. They’re a step behind the Tigers and several steps behind the rest of the AL Central.

The Astros are sitting pretty in the AL West at 52-27 and a 13.5-game lead on the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are their closest competition in the division, so the Astros are running away.

The Angels provided a decent challenge for a minute, but they faded hard, and now it’s all ‘Stros. Houston is carrying a seven-game winning streak into Minute Maid Park tonight. They’ve also won 10 of their last 11 attempts.

Head below for our free Royals vs. Astros prediction on July 5, 2022.

Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
KC Royals +1.5 (-105) +195 Over 8 (-120)
Houston Astros -1.5 (-115) -240 Under 8 (+100)
Team Data KC Royals Houston Astros
Overall Record 29-49 52-27
Away/Home Record 15-24 25-11
Batting Average .237 .238
Batting Average Away/Home .234 .245
Runs Per 9 3.91 4.56
Team ERA 4.92 2.93
Team ERA Away/Home 5.01 2.60

Royals vs. Astros Prediction:

The Royals point to Zack Greinke to put the Royals back in the win column. He’s coming off a couple of strong vintage-line Greinke performances against the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics.

Greinke allowed 2 earned runs across 12 innings in those two performances. It was a nice confidence-builder for Greinke after he was walloped versus the Diamondbacks and Twins.

The D-backs tagged him for 7 earned runs and the Twins followed up with 5 earned runs.

Overall, Greinke has posted an ERA of 4.38 and a 1.23 WHIP through 65.1 innings on the mound. It’s fine if you don’t expect too much out of him. This isn’t the same pitcher from his prime, but he is still solid enough to belong in a rotation.

Greinke has all types of problems on the road. Kauffman Stadium has been a stronghold for Greinke, but not as a visitor.

He’s going into this start with an ERA of 2.14 and a 1.04 WHIP at home in Kansas City. However, Greinke is getting hammered with a 6.90 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road.

Greinke is looking for his first win on the road tonight.

It has been tough on Royals’ pitcher regarding run support. The Royals are 27th, with just 3.96 runs per 9 innings and 0.85 home runs a game.

KC Royals vs. Houston Astros Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 7-3 overall in their previous ten games on the road
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games on a Tuesday
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games after their opponent score 5 or more runs
  • 6-22 overall in their previous 28 games after scoring 5 or more runs
  • 4-11 overall in their previous 15 second game of a series


  • Record (Last 10): 9-1
  • 6-0 overall in their previous six games after a win
  • 4-0 overall in their previous four second game of a series
  • 5-1 overall in their previous five games versus the Royals
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games at Houston
  • 42-19 overall in their previous 61 games at home

  • The Astros are third-best in the majors with 1.50 home runs per game and a .744 OPS for the fifth-best mark. The deep ball is a problem for Greinke recently, as he’s yielded five in four games.

    Luis Garcia is likely the better starter at Minute Maid on Tuesday night.

    Garcia has been in good shape with a 3.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP through 77 innings of work. He’s been steady with an ERA of 3.31 and a 1.04 WHIP in his latest three starts.

    Garcia hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in 10 of his previous 11 starts going into Tuesday night.

    The Royals are hitting .245 with only 1 home runs and 2 RBIs versus Garcia in 51 at-bats. He is coming off a standout performance against the Yankees, with 3 hits and 1 earned run in 5.1 innings. That’s an elite outing from Garcia at Yankee Stadium.

    These two bullpens are on opposite ends of the spectrum this season. The Royals are the third-worst unit with an ERA of 4.72 and a 1.48 WHIP. Conversely, the ‘Stros are first with a 2.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. That was the difference last night.

    Expect the Astros to get off to a much better start tonight. They are unlikely to go behind by 5 runs quickly. Look at the Astros for a win on the runline at Minute Maid Park.


    Royals vs. Astros Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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