The Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros continue their four-game series at Minute Maid Park tonight. The Astros stole a win after overcoming a 5-0 deficit last night. A 5-run lead is never safe against the Astros, especially when only 3 innings are completed.
— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2022
The Royals’ offense did their best to make a game out of it, but the bullpen couldn’t hold. They were behind 6-3 going into the bottom of the 8th and still found a win. Yordan Alvarez walked the Royals off with a solo bomb in the bottom of the 9th.
The Royals dropped to 29-49 and 14.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. Minnesota leads the division with a 3.5-game lead on the Cleveland Guardians following last night’s action.
It’s tough to remain competitive when free agents don’t want to sign with the Royals. They’re a step behind the Tigers and several steps behind the rest of the AL Central.
The Astros are sitting pretty in the AL West at 52-27 and a 13.5-game lead on the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are their closest competition in the division, so the Astros are running away.
The Angels provided a decent challenge for a minute, but they faded hard, and now it’s all ‘Stros. Houston is carrying a seven-game winning streak into Minute Maid Park tonight. They’ve also won 10 of their last 11 attempts.
Head below for our free Royals vs. Astros prediction on July 5, 2022.
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros Live Betting Odds:
|KC Royals||+1.5 (-105)||+195||Over 8 (-120)|
|Houston Astros||-1.5 (-115)||-240||Under 8 (+100)|
|Team Data||KC Royals||Houston Astros|
|Batting Average Away/Home||.234||.245|
|Runs Per 9||3.91||4.56|
|Team ERA Away/Home||5.01||2.60|
Royals vs. Astros Prediction:
The Royals point to Zack Greinke to put the Royals back in the win column. He’s coming off a couple of strong vintage-line Greinke performances against the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics.
Greinke allowed 2 earned runs across 12 innings in those two performances. It was a nice confidence-builder for Greinke after he was walloped versus the Diamondbacks and Twins.
Overall, Greinke has posted an ERA of 4.38 and a 1.23 WHIP through 65.1 innings on the mound. It’s fine if you don’t expect too much out of him. This isn’t the same pitcher from his prime, but he is still solid enough to belong in a rotation.
He’s going into this start with an ERA of 2.14 and a 1.04 WHIP at home in Kansas City. However, Greinke is getting hammered with a 6.90 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road.
It has been tough on Royals’ pitcher regarding run support. The Royals are 27th, with just 3.96 runs per 9 innings and 0.85 home runs a game.
KC Royals vs. Houston Astros Betting Trends:
- Record (Last 10): 4-6
- 7-3 overall in their previous ten games on the road
- 1-5 overall in their previous six games on a Tuesday
- 1-5 overall in their previous six games after their opponent score 5 or more runs
- 6-22 overall in their previous 28 games after scoring 5 or more runs
- 4-11 overall in their previous 15 second game of a series
- Record (Last 10): 9-1
- 6-0 overall in their previous six games after a win
- 4-0 overall in their previous four second game of a series
- 5-1 overall in their previous five games versus the Royals
- 4-1 overall in their previous five games at Houston
- 42-19 overall in their previous 61 games at home
The Astros are third-best in the majors with 1.50 home runs per game and a .744 OPS for the fifth-best mark. The deep ball is a problem for Greinke recently, as he’s yielded five in four games.
Garcia has been in good shape with a 3.54 ERA and 1.06 WHIP through 77 innings of work. He’s been steady with an ERA of 3.31 and a 1.04 WHIP in his latest three starts.
The Royals are hitting .245 with only 1 home runs and 2 RBIs versus Garcia in 51 at-bats. He is coming off a standout performance against the Yankees, with 3 hits and 1 earned run in 5.1 innings. That’s an elite outing from Garcia at Yankee Stadium.
Expect the Astros to get off to a much better start tonight. They are unlikely to go behind by 5 runs quickly. Look at the Astros for a win on the runline at Minute Maid Park.