All 30 MLB teams will be in action on Monday, though one regional rivalry will take center stage on the west coast. The Los Angeles Angels will head north to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in a showdown between a pair of slumping contenders.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, certainly aren’t playing their best baseball of the year, either. LA was swept in a three-game series by the Giants in San Francisco over the weekend. Dave Roberts’ crew will enter Tuesday’s action in a virtual tie with the San Diego Padres for first place in the NL West, as well.
As usual, however, oddsmakers are bullish on the Dodgers in this one. Bovada has LAD listed as a heavy -200 moneyline favorite in a game with an over/under of 8.5 runs.
Los Angeles Angels
After getting off to a hot start, the Angels have fallen by the wayside in the AL West race. LAA comes into this one at just 29-33 on the year, which puts them 8.5 games behind Houston and in third place in the division. At this point, their 27-17 start looks like ancient history.
Newcomer Noah Syndergaard will take another turn for the Halos in Tuesday’s series opener. The former ace has pitched to a solid 3.69 ERA through his first nine outings with the Angels, though his underlying estimators tell a different story.
Thor’s 4.38 SIERA is much more pedestrian, and the strikeout stuff he featured with the Mets earlier in his career seems to be a thing of the past. The right-hander owns a career 25.7 percent K-rate at the major league level, but that number has plunged all the way to just 15.7 percent so far in 2022.
Dodger Stadium has a reputation as a pitcher-friendly park, but that isn’t really the case these days. Only Great American Ballpark, Guaranteed Rate Field, and Coors Field have averaged more home runs per game than Dodger Stadium so far this year. Some of that, of course, has to do with the home team’s impressive lineup.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s weird to see a team as talented as the Dodgers are struggle, but baseball is an inherently unpredictable game. Roberts essentially guaranteed a World Series title before the season began, but this team has issues. Walker Buehler just went down with a long-term injury to his pitching arm, while Clayton Kershaw only recently returned from a lengthy injured list stint of his own. Andrew Heaney is still out of the mix, while Julio Urias has struggled to replicate his 2021 form.
Strangely enough, Tony Gonsolin has been the Dodgers’ most reliable starter all season. The 28-year-old is a perfect 7-0 through 11 starts with an incredible 1.58 ERA. Gonsolin has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four outings, as well.
Those numbers are impressive, but a quick look under the hood reveals some regression should be in order. Even the best pitchers in the sport can’t typically sustain a 1.58 ERA for a full season, and Gonsolin’s 3.73 SIERA says he has enjoyed some favorable luck thus far. A 3.73 SIERA is still good, but it’s not 1.58.
Gonsolin has also gotten favorable luck with batted balls. Opposing hitters have a BABIP of just .188 against him, while league average is closer to .300. Gonsolin has also stranded better than 88 percent of runners to have reached base against him. The league average in that metric is around 72 percent.
That regression might as well hit tonight against an Angels offense getting healthier. This was one of the most prolific lineups in baseball through the first month before injuries set in. Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout recently returned from injuries, while Taylor Ward is due to come off of the injured list ahead of tonight’s game. A full-strength Angels offense is no cakewalk for any pitcher.
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Game Pick
The Dodgers are certainly the superior of the two teams in this game, but oddsmakers seem to be underrating the Angels a bit. Trout and Shohei Ohtani are still arguably two of the five best hitters in the league, while Ward, Rendon, and Jared Walsh are All-Star caliber bats, to boot.
All of this is to say both offenses in this game seem to be in advantageous spots. I don’t think Syndergaard is at all equipped to shut down the Dodgers, which makes this a good get-right spot for the LA offense. The same can be said for the Halos, who will run a full-strength lineup out there tonight against a pitcher likely to regress in the near future.
The over/under of 8.5 runs is too low. Hammer that over at the current -115 odds.
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Recap
- Moneyline: Angels +170, Dodgers -200
- Runline: Angels +1.5 (-125), Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 runs (-115), Under 8.5 runs (-105)
- Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-115)