We crushed it yesterday! I swept the board for all of my MLB and NBA picks and nailed multiple dog money payouts. One of our bigger upset wins was backing the Los Angeles Angels against the New York Yankees. The Yankees were -158 home favorites with Sonny Gray on the mound, and it just didn’t make any sense to me. Gray was coming off his best start of the season, but as a whole, he has been completely ineffective this year, and I just couldn’t see him as such a big favorite against a very good team like the Angels.
In my pick, I mentioned that I thought this would be a high scoring coin flip type of game, and that is what it turned out to be. The Yankees actually lead this game early on 4-1, but the Angels battled back and played a bunch of add-on late, to take the game 11-4. Mike Trout continued his possibly historic season as he went 5-5 with three doubles and a home run. Trout drove in four runs on the afternoon.
This guy is playing on another level right now, and if you believe in wins above replacement (WAR), he is on pace for the greatest season in baseball history. It takes some guts to bet against a team as powerful as the mighty Yankees, but it can be very profitable if you time it well. For today’s pick, I will stay right here in the Bronx for game three of the three-game set between the Yankees and Angels.
The Los Angeles Angels are in New York Sunday for the rubber match of a three-game series with the Yankees. The Yankees took game one 2-1 and dropped game two 11-4, and we are now all tied up at one game apiece heading into game three of the series. The very recently red-hot Yankees have now lost three out of their last four games. On the flip side, the Angels have won three out of their last four.
Starting today for the Yankees is Masahiro Tanaka (5-2 4.95 ERA), and for the Angels it is Garrett Richards (4-3 3.31 ERA). The Yankees are once again big favorites at -166. The game total over-under is set at eight runs. First pitch is scheduled for 10:05 AM PST from Yankee Stadium in New York City.
This was supposed to be the Shohei Ohtani vs. Masahiro Tanaka showdown today. Ohtani has been pitching once a week, generally on Sundays, and it looked like we would get a great matchup of Japanese superstars. Instead, Ohtani will hit instead of pitch today. The Angels are looking to limit his workload and keep his innings down, so he will skip the start and hit instead.
It is a little disappointing, but this is still a really great game between two very good teams. Tanaka has gone through his typical ups and downs this season. He isn’t pitching deep into games and hasn’t been all that great on the mound, but his team is scoring him lots of run support, so he is racking up the wins. The Yankees have won seven of Tanaka’s nine starts this year, with one game being rain canceled that doesn’t count.
He has been particularly mediocre in the month of May. In May, Tanaka has pitched just twenty-one a third innings in four starts and has given up fourteen earned runs. Those aren’t terrible numbers, but it is not like he is going out there and dominating games. He has given up at least three earned runs in seven of his nine starts this season. He isn’t losing you very many games this year, but he really isn’t winning them for you either.
Starting for the Angels instead of Ohtani is Garret Richards. Richards has been his normal solid self and is really rounding into form after a bit of a slow start. In May, Richards has pitched twenty-four innings and has allowed just four earned runs. His ERA was as high as 7.20 early in the season, and he has managed to whittle that down to a very respectable 3.31. He has pitched against the Yankees once this season and they absolutely blasted him. He gave up nine runs in just an inning and a third of work.
This game feels a lot like yesterday’s game. You have an inconsistent pitcher on the mound for New York that is certain to give up at least a couple of runs. And you have a solid pitcher for the Angels that is likely pitching a little bit better than his numbers may be reflecting. Should the Yankees be favored in this one? Once again that answer is yes. But at -166? That seems much, much too high.
This Angels team can score, we saw that yesterday when they exploded for eleven runs. Tanaka almost never goes deep into games. He is good for five innings, six at the most, and that means this Yankees bullpen is going to need to be worked hard again tonight. The pen is likely a bit used up as Sonny Gray didn’t make it out of the fourth inning yesterday, and the Angels swatted the ball around the park like it was batting practice against the Yankees relievers last night.
This feels like another high scoring back and forth affair that could go either way. So, I will do the same thing that I did yesterday and back the team getting all the dog money and hope for the best. I will take a dollar and a half of dog money on a coin flip game all day long. Give me the Los Angeles Angels at +143 today from Yankee Stadium!