Oh, the rain strikes again. I have been in a year-long battle with the rain this season, and I am most certainly losing that fight right now. We lost another opportunity last night when we backed the Chicago Cubs against the Washington Nationals. I loved our side of the bet, but alas, it was not to be as the rain came and delayed the start of the game, and then canceled it altogether shortly thereafter after just one inning of play. What can you do, the rain is annoying, but there isn’t much that we can do about it, so I won’t let it bother me too much. Let’s hope for better weather today as we break down the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Colorado Saturday for game two of a three-game series with the Rockies. This series has huge playoff implications, as entering play today, just a half of a game separates the first place Rockies from the second place Dodgers in the crowded National League West Division chase, with the Arizona DBacks also lurking just a game and a half back as well. The Dodgers took game one last night 4-2, behind a solid start from their ace, Clayton Kershaw.
Starting tonight for the Dodgers is Walker Buehler (6-4 2.92 ERA), and for the Rockies, it is Kyle Freeland (13-7 2.96 ERA). The Dodgers are -134 road favorites. The game total over-under is set at ten runs. First pitch is scheduled for 5:10 PM PST from Coors Field in Colorado.
To say that Kyle Freeland has pitched well this season would be a major understatement. The second-year lefty has been absolutely sensational this season and has established himself as the ace of this Rockies staff. The Rockies have won eleven of his last twelve starts, and his sub-three ERA is elite considering the fact that he has to make his home starts at homer-happy Coors Field.
What has been even more shocking about Freeland is the fact that he actually pitches better in Colorado, something just about no pitcher on the planet can say. At home this season, Freeland is 7-2 with a 2.27 ERA in twelve starts. The Rockies haven’t lost a game at home with Freeland on the mound since June 10th! This guy has truly been transcendent this season and especially in the friendly confines of Coors Field.
The Dodgers will turn to Walker Buehler to try and pick up the big series win tonight. Buehler is another guy that has exceeded all expectations this year. The rookie joined the rotation in late April and has been pitching well ever since. Buehler hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last seven starts. The strange thing for Buehler has been that despite the fact that he has pitched really well recently, the Dodgers are just 4-3 in that seven-game stretch.
Buehler will be making his fourth start of the year against the Rockies today, and he has pitched well against Colorado this season. In three starts he has thrown a combined nineteen innings and has allowed just five earned runs. But talk about hard luck, in two of those starts, Buehler pitched seven innings in both and gave up a total of just one run, and the Dodgers managed to lose both games.
This series means a lot to both of these teams. The division race couldn’t be tighter, and both teams need the win. I am expecting a lower scoring playoff-type atmosphere tonight, similar to last night’s game. Neither squad can afford to give this one up, so I expect a full effort. And that is why I am so surprised to see this number where it currently stands.
The Dodgers have been priced way too high all year long, and that is the case here again tonight. This is about as closely contested of game as there is, yet the Dodgers are big road favorites, it just doesn’t add up. Freeland is nearly unhittable at home, and the guy just never seems to lose. Freeland started against the Dodgers at home about a month ago, and he was great, throwing seven innings, allowing just two runs, and striking out a season-high ten batters.
I am going to offer the rare double bet on this game. I think it will be low scoring and even though taking the under in Colorado seems like suicide, I think it’s the play in this one. I also think that the value side to be on is clearly the Colorado Rockies. They are playing well right now, and with Freeland on the mound, I think they find a way to get the job done tonight.
So, I will look for the double dip tonight in this one. Give me the under ten runs at -110 and the Colorado Rockies as home underdogs at +124. Home underdogs are always my favorite spot to bet, and that is what we will do tonight in game two from Colorado!