Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers – MLB April 29

7:40 p.m. ET – Dodgers (-120) at Brewers O/U: 7.5

The 16-9 Dodgers travel to Miller Park in Milwaukee for a four-game set over the weekend against the 14-10 Brewers. Los Angeles has finally begun to look human, losing three of its last four games. The Dodgers were able to get back on track on Wednesday afternoon with an 8-0 win over the Reds in their series finale behind seven scoreless innings pitched from Clayton Kershaw.

The Brewers are fresh off losing two of three to the Marlins in Milwaukee, falling 6-2 on Wednesday despite allowing only five hits.

About the Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers LogoThe reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers are favorites to repeat this season out in Vegas for good reason. Los Angeles scores five runs per game, currently fourth-most in the big leagues. Third Baseman Justin Turner has led the charge this season, batting .337 with six home runs and 22 RBI in the early going of his 13th MLB season.

Shortstop Corey Seager also has stormed from the gates firing on all cylinders, batting .263 with four home runs and 17 RBI while playing an above-average defensive shortstop. It has not been all sunshine and rainbows for this lineup, however, as they are batting .185 overall in their last 10 games. The pitching staff has allowed only 3.5 runs per game, which is the second-fewest in all of baseball. The bulk of the credit for this belongs to the starting rotation, which features five elite arms.

The five starters each have recorded over 30 strikeouts this season. The highest ERA among the starters is a 3.23 from Julio Urias. The Dodgers are the most solid team in baseball from top to bottom, with very few discernible flaws.

About the Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers Logo 101x101The Brewers reside in first place of the National League Central as the month of April comes to a close. Milwaukee averages 4.1 runs per game, which ranks 18th in the major leagues. The Brewers do not do anything particularly well in the batters’ box, but they do not do anything pool, either.

Outfielders Lorenzo Cain and former NL Most Valuable Player Christian Yelich remain on the 10-Day injured list currently, with the hopes of returning to the lineup sometime this weekend. The two have been the offensive catalysts for Milwaukee in recent years, which has forced the team to turn to unlikely hitters to carry some of the weight. Right fielder Avisail Garcia and third baseman Travis Shaw each have three home runs and double-digit RBI, but are batting .195 and .213, respectively. The Brewers have other notable hitters below the Mendoza line, including first baseman Keston Hiura and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Second baseman Kolton Wong has picked up the slack well since coming off the injured list, batting .325, and catcher Omar Narvaez is crushing it with a .371/..452/.548 line.

If Milwaukee can get healthier and start getting production from the middle of the lineup, this team can win upward of 90 games this season. The reason why is the pitching staff, which has a 3.46 team ERA. The team has a bona-fide ace in Corbin Burnes. With right-handed flame thrower Devin Williams in the bullpen to set up for the left-handed closer Josh Hader, there is no reason to be surprised this team does not give up many runs. They allow only 6.8 hits per game, which is the third fewest in all of baseball.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ (-120) -210 O 7½ (-115)
Milwaukee Brewers +1½ (+100) +175 U 7½ (-105)

The Pitching Matchup

Los Angeles will be handing the ball to the 2020 National League Cy Young award winner in Trevor Bauer on Thursday night. Bauer and the Brewers are familiar with one another as he pitched in the National League Central with the Reds for one and a half seasons prior to signing with the Dodgers as a free agent in the offseason. Bauer is 3-0 in five starts this season with a 2.53 ERA in 32 innings pitched. Perhaps most impressive is the 45 strikeouts he has recorded with only six walks.

The Brewers have given left-hander Eric Lauer the assignment of slowing down the Dodgers in the series opener. Lauer will be making his season debut on Thursday after a very disappointing 2020 campaign. Lauer went 0-2 last season in four starts with a 13.09 ERA, as he was able to accumulate only 11 innings pitched all season. Lauer is looking for a bounce-back season and has a tall task ahead of him facing this Los Angeles lineup right out of the gate.

What’s the Bet?
The value for Thursday night’s series opener lies within the first five innings. Milwaukee has far too good of a bullpen to lay the juice for the game with the Dodgers, but with Eric Lauer getting the start for the Brewers, there is plenty of value in Los Angeles to win the first five innings. The Dodgers should get at least two to three runs off Lauer, and with Bauer on the mound that should be more than enough.

Expect the Los Angeles lineup to remain back on track after Wednesday’s eight run outburst and score early and often.

Take the Dodgers to be winning by at least one run by the end of the fifth inning, and cash your ticket well before the game is even over.
The Bets
Dodgers First Five Innings -0.5 Runs
-150
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Joe Menzer / Author

Joe is an award-winning writer and editor who has covered the NBA, NFL, NASCAR, golf, various collegiate athletics and other sports for newspapers, Turner Sports, Fox Sports and ESPN. He has been on the beat for seven Super Bowls, six Daytona 500s and numerous NBA playoff series and All-Star Games. He once was dispatched to Rome, Italy to spend time with an NBA draft choice who opted to play overseas, after which he produced an award-winning series of stories. He also is passionate about fantasy sports and breaking down games in ways that even novice gamblers can use to make their most intelligent wagering decisions.

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