Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Odds and Pick for June 21st

Tuesday brings another full Major League Baseball slate, with all 30 teams in action this evening. Needless to say, you’ve got quite a few options at your disposal tonight and a lot of ways to go as a baseball bettor.

The earliest game on the slate will start at 6:40 ET when the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark. The Dodgers swept the Reds in a four-game series in Southern California back in April, but Cincy has played better baseball since their disastrous 3-22 start.

The Dodgers will turn to right-hander Tony Gonsolin, who will look to stay perfect. Gonsolin is 8-0 through his first 12 starts of the year, and he’s been one of the most-improved starters in the league after struggling with consistency through his first few years. Cincinnati will counter with a right-hander of their own in ace Tyler Mahle.

In news that should surprise nobody that’s been paying attention, the Dodgers are heavy betting favorites. Los Angeles checks in with -175 moneyline odds in a game with an over/under of nine runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers came into the season as betting favorites to win the 2022 World Series. The rich got richer after Los Angeles signed Freddie Freeman in free agency, but the red-hot New York Yankees have since taken over as favorites to win it all this fall. The Yanks are now at +450 to win the Fall Classic, while the Dodgers’ odds have slid a bit to +475.

Amid a few injuries and cold bats, the Dodgers have struggled lately. LA actually enters Tuesday’s action tied with the San Diego Padres atop the NL West, while the San Francisco Giants are still lurking just 3.5 games back. The Dodgers’ plus-114 run differential on the year is still very easily the best mark in the National League, but they’re just 5-5 in their last 10 games.

Mookie Betts hit the injured list over the weekend with a cracked rib, which waters down the lineup a bit tonight. As mentioned, Gonsolin is in the midst of the best season of his career, with a perfect record and a sparkling 1.42 ERA.

Of course, a 1.42 ERA is not sustainable for any pitcher. While the right-hander has been effective, his underlying indicators suggest he’s benefited from favorable luck to this point. Gonsolin’s 3.72 SIERA is much more pedestrian than his ERA. He has also yielded a BABIP of only .182, which is remarkably low considering league average hovers around .300.
Gonsolin has also managed to strand a whopping 88 percent of the runners that have reached base against him, which helps to explain his shiny ERA. Opposing offenses have scored just 10 earned runs in 63.1 innings against him all year.

It’s worth noting the move into Great American Ballpark is a major downgrade for Gonsolin and the rest of the LA pitching staff. The Reds’ home yard ranks first in MLB in home runs this season, while it’s second to only Coors Field in wOBA and third in total batting average.

Cincinnati Reds

Because the National League Central is so top-heavy, the Reds didn’t even ensure a last-place finish despite winning just three of their first 25 games. Cincinnati has bounced back since that dismal start, though they are still sitting in last place as of now. The 23-43 Reds are 1.5 games behind the Cubs for fourth, but only four games adrift of the Pirates for third place in the division.

Things may continue to get worse from here, though. After an offseason fire sale, you can bet the Reds will remain open for business ahead of next month’s trade deadline. Tonight’s starter, Mahle, figures to be a hot commodity if the Reds are open to making another big move.

Mahle got off to a ragged start, but he’s come around in a big way of late. The right-hander racked up 22 strikouts across back-to-back stellar outings against the Diamondbacks, but his matchup tonight against the Dodgers’ vaunted lineup is considerably more daunting.

Mahle has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts, but he’s benefited from some weak competition of late. His lone previous outing of the year against these Dodgers did not go well at all. Los Angeles tattooed hiim to the tune of seven runs on seven hits in a 9-1 beatdown of the Reds at Dodger Stadium back on April 17th.

Left-handed hitters have been a problem for Mahle throughout his career. Dave Roberts put five lefties into his lineup for this one.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds MLB Game Pick

Great American Ballpark is one of the game’s premier run-scoring environments. Even with two quality pitchers on the mound, an over/under of nine runs looks shockingly low for this game.

Please Note:
We’ve also got some good hitting weather in store for the Queen City tonight. Temperatures in Cincinnati will be in the low-90s around first pitch with a steady breeze blowing out toward left field.

Gonsolin is due for regression, so why can’t it come tonight? Cincy has also gotten more healthy of late, with Jonathan India and Mike Moustakas both back in the lineup after stints on the injured list. I’d expect the Dodgers to do most of the offensive heavy-lifting in this game, but the Reds are still capable of doing some damage against a fairly overrated right-hander.

All of this is to say the over on nine runs looks like the obvious play. The odds (-120) are juiced for that over, and with good reason.

Over 9 runs

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds Betting Recap

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -175, Reds +150
  • Runline: Dodgers -1.5 (-120), Reds +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: Over 9 runs (-120), Under 9 runs (+100)
  • Pick: Over 9 runs (-120)


Taylor Smith / Author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

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