Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Felix Hernandez (12-5, 2.54 ERA) vs. Liam Hendricks (0-6, 7.06 ERA)
At first glance, this looked like one of the worst lines I have seen all season. Felix Hernandez against a last-place team sending a pitcher to the mound who hasn’t won a SINGLE GAME all season?!? There must be a catch, right? Surely this is more like a -200 or -225 game, a total mismatch… so let’s take a look inside the numbers and trends and see if there is in fact any reason not to back King Felix with surefire confidence.
Obviously, Felix Hernandez had a bit of a letdown start in his last outing. Of course, it is nearly impossible not to have a lesser performance after throwing the 27th perfect game in major league history. His last outing? A pedestrian outing where he went 7 2/3 innings and allowed just a single run… obviously I am speaking tongue in cheek here. The bar has been raised sky high by King Felix, and he just continues to deliver dominant performances. He has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. In six of them he allowed ONE or less. Simply put, this guy has been unhittable.
Enter the Twins. Losers of eight of ten, and fourteen of their last eighteen games. It’s been abysmal all season long in Minnesota, and as hard as it is to fathom, they’ve actually been WORSE the past month. They’ve allowed 42 runs in their last six games, for a whopping average of seven per game. If they allow even a sniff of seven runs tonight, they have no shot of beating the Mariners and King Felix.
The Twins can hit a little (.258 team average, 4.34 runs/9 innings) but their pitching has killed them. Their starting pitchers have a league-worst 5.56 ERA.
Seattle, on the other hand, is showing some late season life and a ton of promise of better things to come in 2013. They are for all intents and purposes eliminated from playoff contention this year, but no seems to have told this energetic young ballclub. They are attempting to rebound from a weekend sweep at the hands of the White Sox, but prior to that, they had won eight in a row and ten of eleven overall.
I like the Mariners to win tonight, and to win with some ease. The -150 line is a gift, and the +115 on the -1.5 runline is almost too good to be true. Give me the Mariners tonight with both wagers.
Free Pick: Seattle Mariners to WIN -150 & Seattle -1.5 (+115)