Marlins vs. Braves MLB Pick – August 21st

The Atlanta Braves looked like a team who lead the NL East last night, while the Marlins looked like a bottom team. That’s exactly right, as the Braves are ahead in the NL East with a record of 72-52. The Nationals are trying to keep up, but are still in a six-game hole behind the Braves.

It’s going to be a tough road to catch the Nationals, though finding a wildcard is considerably more manageable. The Nationals would be hosting the Cubs if the Wild Card Game was today. Their bullpen was terrible earlier in the season, but now that they’ve been able to stabilize, the Nats have been seeing much better results.

It’s all about the bullpens in the postseason and whether the Nationals have the horses to compete on a big stage is up for debate. However, any bullpen has the potential to get hit hard. The Indians have the top bullpen in the majors, but I’ve seen them, including last night, have difficulties getting outs. Atlanta have been a bit ahead of the bell curve in the majors, as they’re 13th in the majors with an ERA of 4.41. The Marlins are predictably near the back with a 5.13 ERA out of the bullpen.

Like I noted, the Marlins are at the back of the NL East. Along with being at the back of the NL East, the Marlins are dead last in the National League at 45-79. They are ahead of the Tigers and Orioles of the American League, though. That’s not really a win, as they won’t have the No. 1 overall pick in the draft to show for this awful year.

Caleb Smith will get the call for the Marlins on Wednesday night in Atlanta. Smith has done a solid enough job as a young pitcher on a bad team in 2019. Julio Teheran, who is coming off a spotty performance, is expected to be in for the Braves. Head below for our free Marlins vs. Braves pick.

Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Braves -205/Marlins +115
  • O/U: 9

Pitching Matchup:

  • Caleb Smith (8-6, 3.63 ERA)
  • Julio Teheran (7-8, 3.71 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Julio Teheran can be a streaky good pitcher, but can also hit cold spells to hit him hard. The Braves are hoping that Teheran gets all of the bad stuff out of his system before the postseason gets here. He can either be a major contributor or liability for the Braves. More often than not, though, the Braves can count on Teheran pitching a strong game. That wasn’t the case in his most recent appearance, as the Mets jumped all over him for 6 earned runs in 1.1 innings of work. Teheran also yielded 8 hits and 3 walks without getting to 2 innings of work.

That hasn’t been indicative of his overall effort this season, however. He is good for a bad outing like that here and there, but tends to show a solid ability to respond. Prior to that showing, Teheran eight straight games with 3 or less runs allowed. In seven of eight, Teheran allowed 2 or less runs, so he’s had to throw off when he’s in a groove. This was immediately following a shellacking against the Cubs, where he surrendered 7 runs at Wrigley. Expect Teheran to do something similar against an inferior offense that is the Marlins.

The Marlins are 29th with 3.68 runs per game. Detroit have taken over last with respects to offensive output, but both are equally terrible. Miami are hitting .225 in 253 at-bats against Teheran. Conversely, the Braves have hammered Caleb Smith for a .325 average and 6 home runs in 77 at-bats. Caleb hasn’t been as good on the road as he has at home in 2019. He owns a 3.95 ERA as opposed to a 3.32 ERA at home in Miami. Look for a bounce back outing from Teheran, as he paces the Braves to a win over the Marlins on Wednesday.

The Bet
BRAVES -1.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.