Marlins vs. Braves MLB Pick – August 5th

We weren’t able to get in the winning column last night as we took the dangerous path of betting against the Dodgers and the previously-slumping Yu Darvish, only to fall prey to yet another Dodgers domination and the sudden rebirth of the Cy Young-ish version of Darvish. If he is even CLOSE to that good the rest of the season and Kershaw returns? It’s curtains for the rest of the league…

Elsewhere, Daniel Murphy’s flare for the big game continued as his pair of homeruns powered the Nats past the Cubs at Wrigley, 4-2, and the Brewers got an absolute gem from Brandon Woodruff in the 24-year old’s first appearance in the Majors; beating the Tampa Bay Rays 2-0. The win pulled the Brewers to back within a half game of the division leading Cubs. Last week it looked like the Cubs might finally hit the gas pedal and leave the division behind, but with seven weeks to go in the season, we still have ourselves a race…

Let’s see if we can get back on the winning side of the ledger tonight.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Miami Marlins +118 at Atlanta Braves -128 (Total: 9)
Dan Straily (7-7, 3.79 ERA) vs. Mike Foltynewicz (9-6, 4.08 ERA)

The Braves have had the Marlins number, winning six of nine so far this season. But two of their three losses came against Dan Straily, who has posted a tidy 1.79 ERA this season against the Fish. That immediately makes the Marlins a nice value play tonight on the road against the slumping Braves.

Atlanta is just 2-7 in their last nine games overall, while the Marlins are 6-3 and 7-3 in their last ten road games. The offenses are relatively comparable; Miami averages 4.75 runs per game to Atlanta’s 4.59, but the manner in which the Marlins score is often easier, with their army of power hitters led by the surging Giancarlo Stanton who went yard twice last night and will be looking for more against Foltynewicz.

The team’s records are similar, but the recent trends are part of a larger pattern. Atlanta won 5-3 last night, but it was just their fifth win in eighteen games. Meanwhile, Miami had won nine of thirteen heading into the weekend.

It’s a pretty good value to get a slight pitching edge, a more than slight offensive edge AND get plus money. The value is on the Fish tonight, and I’ll stake my pick on Straily and the Marlins.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.