Marlins vs. Brewers MLB Pick – June 4th

The Miami Marlins had the most brutal start in Major League Baseball this season. Most notably, their offense couldn’t hit against anybody, no matter who was on the bump. They had trouble scoring 3 runs a game and were averaging around 2.5 runs before recently learning how to hit and get over 3 runs per game. The Marlins were the only team for a while who were averaging less than 3 runs.

With 18 runs in their last two games, they’ve clearly looked like a better unit recently. That isn’t to say that anyone should believe in the Marlins. They’ve just been doing a good job of not embarrassing themselves recently. The Marlins enter on a two-game winning streak after winning two of three games against the Padres. Miami were a bankroll eater to some people out there, as they won as decent underdogs in both instances.

The fashion that the Marlins won in was probably the most surprising thing about Saturday and Sunday. They won by 9-3 in both games, which was also their fifth win in the last seven games. Trevor Richards was off the pace to begin the season, but has been starting to regain his form like the rest of the club. Following a nice showing this weekend in San Diego, the Marlins remain on the road, heading to Milwaukee for a three-game series with the Brewers.

Milwaukee have wins in their last two games as well, with wins of 12-10 and 4-2 over the Pirates. Two entirely different ways of going about getting a win, but they both count the same. Thanks to three wins in their last four games and losses by the Cubs, the Brewers are in control of the NL Central by a game. Chase Anderson will toe the rubber for the Brewers this evening, while Pablo Lopez is expected to start for the Marlins. Head below for our free Brewers vs. Marlins pick.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -170/Marlins +146
  • O/U: 9

Pitching Matchup:

  • Pablo Lopez (3-5, 4.99 ERA)
  • Chase Anderson (3-0, 3.31 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Pablo Lopez is coming off a solid outing and is looking for another solid performance in Milwaukee on Tuesday. He was sharp with 4 hits and 1-run allowed in 6 innings of play against the Giants. It was the second positive outing by Lopez in his last three starts. He had the best start of his career against the Mets, with 1 hit and no runs allowed in 7 innings. Responding and doing it in consecutive starts was a different story, though. Lopez was out by 3.2 innings in after giving up 7 hits and 4 runs.

Lopez, in his first full season at the major league level, has shown he can be a very good pitcher. He has three appearances this season where he hasn’t given up a run. However, there is the bad Lopez as well. He has allowed at least 4 runs in five starts this season.

Consistency has been an issue, which makes you wonder how he will follow up a nice showing. He’s ran into issues stringing consecutive successful efforts. In the first game he gave up no runs, Lopez followed it up with 4 runs against the Phillies. Likewise, the next time he did it, his next start resulted in 10 earned runs in against the Mets in 3 innings. And then for the final donut game, he came back and allowed 4 runs in his very next start.

Most of his poor games have been on the road in 2019. Miami has been pretty nice to him, with just a run allowed in his last 19 innings at home. Conversely, things take a dive for Lopez when he is tasked with getting outs on the road. He carries an ERA of 8.26 and 1.62 WHIP on the road as opposed to a 1.84 ERA in south beach.

The Marlins are going to have to find a way to score runs on a guy that it hasn’t been easy to do. In 55 at-bats, Marlins’ hitters have just 1 RBI and a batting average of .236. That doesn’t bode well for a team who are averaging just 3.32 runs per game for 30th in the majors. Yes, I’ve noted that they have been swinging the bats better lately.

However, after scoring 18 runs in two days, it wouldn’t be surprising to see sharp regression from the Marlins here. Anderson has been stout at home with a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home in Milwaukee this season. That likely continues against the Marlins, as they get brought back down to earth by the Brew Crew on Tuesday night.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.