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Marlins vs Cubs Pick MLB – Aug 1st

Our massive underdog play was thwarted by a seventh inning three-run big fly from the Mets as they overtook the scorching Rockies for a 6-4 victory.  It turns out we were correct to roll the dice that the Rockies could handle Noah Syndergaard – they did – as he left the game on the hook for the loss.  But ultimately we came up a few runs short of a nearly two to one payday.

It’s a new week and the final day of the trade deadline.  Things were interesting yesterday as people rumored to be on the move like Jonathon Lucroy sat on the bench, only to have his no-trade clause invoked nixing a deal to the AL Central leading Indians (surprise??)  Lucroy may still be on the move, as might Jay Bruce and a few other high-profile NL position players, but for the most part, it appears things are remaining relatively calm….

There’s a whole new slate of series starting this week, highlighted by the Subway Series in New York and the surging Marlins taking on the Cubbies.  Aside from that, most of the NL has the day off and things get back to normal tomorrow.

Let’s start a big week today.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Miami Marlins +162 at Chicago Cubs -172 (Total: 8)

Adam Conley (7-5, 3.38 ERA) vs. Kyle Hendricks (9-7, 2.39 ERA)

Arrieta and Lester.  And now Chapman joining Rondon.  Add in the nice bounce back year from Jason Hammel and the name recognition of John Lackey, and it is real easy to forget tonight’s starter is even on the Cubs.  But the “fifth” starter, Kyle Hendricks currently owns the lowest ERA of any starter on the team by nearly a half a run.  He owns a slightly lower WHIP of 1.05 compared to Arrieta and Lester, and the Cubs have won six of his last eight starts.

The point is, Hendricks has been outstanding, and arguably as good as any pitcher on the team and there is a reason he is a strong favorite tonight at Wrigley Field.  But Adam Conley has been good this season too.  His ERA is in the low threes, and he has posted a 3-0 record and 1.82 ERA in July.  However, he is just 3-2 with a 3.88 ERA on the road this season, and it is fair to assume most of his road tests haven’t been quite as stern as the Cubs offense.

This has the potential to be a good game, but I think Hendricks will outshine Conley and get the run support he needs to grab the Cubs a victory with some room to spare.  The -172 line is a little slim for my liking, but the runline value of +118 is solid.

Free Pick:  Chicago Cubs RUNLINE -1.5 (+118)