We came up short last night, with the Cardinals impressive winning streak being snapped by Gerrit Cole and the Pirates. It was a bad night for the Cardinals to hit the skids, with Milwaukee winning over Chicago (all three games in that series have gone ten innings so far – October baseball, here we come!!) and Colorado getting blanked in San Diego. A win would have pulled them even with the Rockies in the loss column with just eight days to play.
All three will be in action today; Milwaukee sending Chase Anderson to battle Carlos Quintana, St. Louis and Colorado trying to finish off winning series in games they are favored to win.
Let’s see if we can cap off the week with a roll of the dice on a major underdog cashing a big plus money winner…
Today’s MLB Pick:
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Dan Straily (10-9, 4.17 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (14-13, 4.14 ERA)
The Diamondbacks have their home field edge for the Wildcard Round already sewn up, and will be using this final week to tune up the rotation for a hopeful playoff run. Miami’s season is over, aside from some lingering interest in Giancarlo Stanton’s chase for 61 homeruns (he hit #57 last night). But that doesn’t mean players aren’t still trying to win (or at least get some stats).
The Marlins are a really interesting value at +175. They are a dreadful 7-18 over their last 25 games, so the underdog status is certainly warranted. But Dan Straily has been solid this season; better than Patrick Corbin overall, despite terrible struggle two outings ago. It taints his second half numbers a bit; allowing eight runs to the Phillies in just a few innings. Aside from that outing, he has allowed three or less runs in eight of his last ten starts. The Marlins are 4-2 SU in his last six starts.
Meanwhile, Corbin enters with an ERA just under six for September (5.91 ERA) and a season batting average allowed of .279. Corbin has allowed 50 homers the past two years in 55 starts. He has a career 4.14 ERA, but that mark sinks to 5.00 in his career in September.
In five starts against the Marlins, he is 1-1 with a 5.04 ERA.
The Marlins are deserved underdogs. They have been lousy the last three weeks. The safest play today might be the OVER 10.5, but that still feels a little reactionary to a few bad outings from each starter. Neither is a complete tomato can, they just have a few tough outings dragging down otherwise decent ERA’s. Instead, I’m gonna roll the dice on the large number for Miami. They don’t deserve to be favored, and Straily over Corbin isn’t a huge edge – but they are pretty even, making the +175 a worthy gamble.
Today’s MLB Pick: MIAMI MARLINS TO WIN +175