Marlins vs. Dodgers MLB Pick – July 19th

The Miami Marlins are out west following a successful series against the Padres in Miami. They were victorious in two out of three games with wins of 12-7 and 4-3. It was a close call in the other outing, but ultimately came up a run short by a score of 3-2. The Marlins don’t get to enjoy too many series wins, so it was a good time against a fairly decent Padres squad. It’s a lost opportunity for the Padres, who are in the thick of a wildcard race in the National League. The Marlins will be facing a very good National League team this weekend.

Their record of 36-58 hails in comparison to the 64-35 record for the Dodgers. The Dodgers spent last night flying out west as well. They were in Philadelphia for a four-game series which saw them earn a split. That’s a win for the Phillies, but it isn’t a bad scenario for the Dodgers, either.

They could coast the rest of the season and still win the NL West. We saw the same thing happen to the Indians last season, as they had zero competition all season long. However, what did the Tribe do in the postseason? Absolutely nothing. And we are all aware of how many times the Dodgers have come up short the past several years in the playoffs. Just getting to the World Series is a loss for the Dodgers and will be the case again this season. They must win this time.

The Dodgers have done a tremendous job showing that they can win without Yasiel Puig. Their offense hasn’t missed a beat and I really don’t believe they should be looking at offense come the trade deadline. Signing a big name in Manny Machado didn’t work out last season, so look for bullpen depth and go from there. The Dodgers will trot out Cy Young candidate Hyun-Jin Ryu tonight, while the Marlins are expected to opt for rookie Zac Gallen. Head below for our free Marlins vs. Dodgers pick.

Miami Marlins vs. L.A. Dodgers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -310/Marlins +255
  • O/U: 7.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Zac Gallen (0-1, 4.24 ERA)
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu (10-2, 1.78 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Ryu has been almost automatic for the Dodgers this season. If they get a little bit of offense with Ryu on the mound, it’s almost always going to be a win. I say almost because they didn’t a heck of a lot more than a little offense against the Rockies on June 28th with Ryu on the bump. He was hammered for 9 hits and 7 earned runs for what was by far his worst showing of the year. That was at Coors Field, though, where a lot of pitchers get a free pass.

It was rather uncharacteristic for Ryu, who hadn’t allowed more than 2 runs in any outing up to that point. He jumped right back on his horse, though, and the next two outings allowed just 2 runs in 13 innings on the bump. Ryu helped the Dodgers get wins of 5-1 over the Padres and 7-4 over the Red Sox. That Red Sox game was a thriller, as they won in extra innings on Sunday Night Baseball a week ago.

Ryu has been flawless at home, allowing only 10 runs in 63.2 innings to give him an ERA of 0.85. He also carries an incredibly strong WHIP of 0.77 and .209 OBA going into this one. In 44 at-bats, Ryu has given up just 4 runs to this lineup. He has yet to lose at home and I’m not sure that the Marlins are going to be the team to crack the code on Ryu at Dodger Stadium.

Zac Gallen will do his best to help the Marlins out. He will be making just the fifth start of his major league career this evening. It’s a tricky spot against a dangerous Dodger offense on the road. The Dodgers are 5th in the majors, with an average of 5.41 runs scored per game. Meanwhile, the Marlins are still 30th with 3.64 runs per game.

Gallen isn’t expected to get much run support in this contest. The rookie posted an ERA of 5.25 and 1.58 WHIP after making an impressive debut against the Cards. Expect some more regression for him Friday night. All things considered, laying -140 on the runline for the Dodgers to win by more than a run looks like solid value behind a Cy Young favorite.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.