Marlins vs. Dodgers Pick MLB – April 25th

We notched a fourth straight MLB winner with the Dodgers and Rockies laying waste to the OVER/UNDER of 11 runs in Colorado.  The day before we also hit on this series with the UNDER on the same lofty total.  Just another real-life reminder that day to day baseball is different than wagering on any other sport because the most important position on the field changes.  Momentum is only as strong as the next day’s starting pitcher…

Speaking of starting pitchers, there are more than a few really good ones hurling tonight in the National League.  The most interesting part, is that aside from Noah Syndergaard and Rasiel Iglesias in New York, most of the big name starters on the mound tonight are all trying to shake off some tough outings and a slow start.  The most pressure is on Zack Greinke tonight as he matches up against talented Jaime Garcia and the D’Backs host the Cardinals.  Greinke was easily the highest-priced and biggest splash free agent signing, but he enters tonight with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 5.26.

Also trying to get going are talented pitchers like Madison Bumgarner and Julio Tehran.  It should be a good day across the NL, and it will be interesting to see how many heavily-relied upon pitchers can get it going tonight.

We have it going right now, so let’s keep it that way and see if we can notch a fifth straight MLB winner.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Miami Marlins +112 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers -122 (Total: 7.5)

Wei-Yin Chen (0-1, 4.91) vs. Ross Stripling (0-0, 2.65 ERA)

The Dodgers have gotten things rolling lately, winning four of their last five after a fun weekend in Coors Field.  Tonight’s game is made even more interesting by the return of Don Mattingly, this time in the visitors locker room.  Mattingly had a lot of success in LA, but never quite earned the trust and support of the front office and was let go after another post-season failure last season.  Things are off to a slow start in Miami, but given their roster compared to LA, it is pretty understandable.

The Marlins are just 3-7 in their last ten games and a dismal -384 return for the season.  They have a -1.12run per game differential and are scoring just 3.74 runs per game.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers are +1.24 and are averaging 4.95 runs per game.  YES, their weekend in Coors goosed up the numbers a bit, but there is no denying this Dodger team is the better squad with a pretty decisive edge over Miami.

I’m surprised this line is as slim as it is.  I think they are afford a little too much respect to Chen tonight and a little too little to Stripling.  The youngster lasted just 3.1 innings in his last start, but a lot of that was a quick hook rather than a miserable performance.  As you can see from his season ERA, he has pitched fairly well overall.

I’ll take the vastly superior team at home tonight at a really good price.

Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers to WIN -122

Chris Scheeren / Author