Marlins vs. Mets MLB Pick – August 6th

The New York Mets won in comfortable fashion yesterday afternoon behind a solid performance by Jacob deGrom. He steered the Marlins to a 6-2 win, and then later in the day the Mets won in a much different way. The Mets erased a 4-2 deficit to lock in a 5-4 win to sweep the double-header. They’ve now won four straight games and are 11-1 in their previous twelve games.

There were some people wondering why the Mets would have acquired Marcus Stroman. Thinking that maybe the Mets are too far behind and have no shot of going to the postseason. Now that they’re back to .500 finally and oozing confidence, the Mets are suddenly in the thick of the wildcard race. While catching the Braves in the NL East looks like a near impossible task, they’re only 2.5 games back of playing in the Wild Card Game.

The only thing I caution with the Mets is that they haven’t exactly been playing top competition during this 11-1 run. Beating up on the Pirates, White Sox, and Marlins isn’t going to impress anyone. When you look at it like that, the verdict should still be out on the Mets. Having said that, their rotation is really strong and that’s especially important late in the season. Close ball games come down to pitching and the Mets are armed with a solid rotation.

Miami did what they do best on Monday and that’s lose baseball games. Sandy Alcantara pitched a strong game for the Marlins and did all he could in his 5 innings on the bump. The same can’t be said for their bullpen who struggled to close the deal. Rookie Jordan Yamamoto, who started his major league career off hot, though has cooled off recently, will look for success Tuesday. The Mets will counter with Zach Wheeler, who ultimately stayed in Queens after all of the trade rumors. Head below for our free Marlins vs. Mets pick.

Miami Marlins vs. N.Y. Mets Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Mets -230/Marlins +195
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Jordan Yamamoto (4-2, 3.94 ERA)
  • Zack Wheeler (8-6, 4.45 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

It was a perfect start to Jordan Yamamoto’s career in the major leagues. He allowed no runs in his first two starts, and allowed no runs in three of his first five outings. In the two appearances he didn’t pitch a scoreless game, Yamamoto gave up only 2 runs. It’s been a struggle for him recently, though. Yamamoto has gotten ripped for a 9.64 ERA in his last three outings. A bad start against the Dodgers set in the motion of a downhill pattern for Yamamoto.

All of the confidence he generated seemingly has looked lost since the hot start to his career. Despite allowing no runs in the first 14 innings of his career, that’s not the largest sample size to judge him on. He goes into Tuesday with an overall ERA of 3.94, which is still solid for a rookie. However, the beginning of his career might have given too many people false hope, but variance has hit him hard of late.

This will be his first career start against the Mets. He faces an offense who have been hitting well, with an average of 7.75 runs scored per game in their previous four games. It’s been ten games since the Mets have notched less than 4 runs in a game, so Yamamoto may have work cut out for him here.

On the other side, Zack Wheeler will go into this matchup with an ERA of 4.67 in his previous three outings. That’s pretty consistent with his overall effort of a 4.45 ERA in 2019. He’s been slightly worse at home this year, with a 4.74 ERA as opposed to a 4.19 ERA on the road. Wheeler is a fine pitcher and the Mets needed to hold on to him for their postseason push. However, a total of 8 against the rookie Yamamoto looks like a small number here. There appears to be some value on the OVER in this spot.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.