Marlins vs. Mets Pick MLB – July 4th

The Giants held off a few late runs from the D’Backs and overcame the homeruns by Goldschmidt and Lamb to win in extra innings and help us cash yet another plus-money winner.  It was our fifth win in six picks this week and was the third healthy plus-money winner and fourth at even money or better this week.  Hopefully we can carry that strong momentum into this week and make July our best month of the season.

It was also a good weekend for OVER bettors.  Runs were stacking up with steroid-era level acuity yesterday, and really much of this last week.  The “year of the pitcher” is rapidly ceding to the “summer of the hitter.”  There were three games in the NL with more than 13 runs and five of the seven games played in National League Stadiums had at least NINE runs tallied.  There were three more double-digit games the day before (NL only) and four more Friday night.

It will definitely be worth watching this week to see if the trend is here to stay or if it was just a little blip with a lot of marquee pitchers missing starts or struggling…

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Today’s Free Pick:

Miami Marlins +145 at New York Mets -153 (Total: 7.5)

Tim Kohler (6-7, 4.55 ERA) vs. Matt Harvey (4-10, 4.55 ERA)

It was a pretty nice weekend for the Mets.  They swept the swooning Cubs in four straight game, outscoring them 32-11.  They will try to keep it going at home tonight with the visiting Miami Marlins, who despite some struggles from Giancarlo Stanton, are just a game and a half behind the Mets for second place in the East.

But given today’s column intro, doesn’t this runline seem REALLY low?  With baseballs flying out of the yard, and two starting pitchers with high ERA’s and moderate to below average success this season, 7.5 feels like a miniscule number.  I was expecting this game to be 8.5, but perhaps there is lingering sentiment that Matt Harvey still has the potential to throw up seven or eight innings of zeros at any moment.  The fact that very few of those moments have occurred since 2013 apparently is less relevant to Vegas.  He is 2-3 with a 3.38 ERA lifetime against the Fish.

Meanwhile, the Marlins counter with another guy with an ERA over four and a half and a similar losing record to Harvey.  Kohler is 2-6 with a 4.18 ERA in his career against New York.  I expect both pitchers to allow some runs today and offenses to control the game.

Maybe Harvey dips into the wayback machine and pitches a Fourth of July gem.  He has only allowed nine runs in his last five starts spanning 28.2 innings – that is a solid ERA just under three since May 30th.  But even if he does pitch excellently, the Mets offense is on fire and getting a friendly pitching matchup – they could conceivably eclipse the total all by themselves.

Today’s Free Pick:  Run TOTAL OVER 7.5