Our wager last night got chunked into the ‘no action’ pile due to a starting pitching scratch as Rich Hill was lifted due to some nagging blister issues and other mild concers. He is expected to pitch this weekend, but nothing official has been announced by the Dodgers camp. Either way, his replacement allowed five runs in the very first inning including a grand slam, so the UNDER wager was in immediate jeopardy, if you decided to buck the pitching change and stick with the old plan, it was probably a short night for you…
We will try to get some real action tonight and see if we can pick up where we left off earlier in the week – pairing up some winners.
Today is an extrememly light schedule with only three National League games and four games on the total MLB slate. However, the limited slate does have some nice matchups, including a huge series for the Giants as they try to keep pace with the Dodgers despite a four-game daunting set in Chicago against the scorching hot Cubbies…
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Today’s Free Pick:
Miami Marlins +180 at New York Mets -190 (Total: 7.5)
Jose Urena (2-5, 5.83 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (7-7, 2.96 ERA)
The Mets have five Opening Day starters on the disabled list and have had another three spend time on said DL. Yet, here they are, winners of nine of their last eleven games and surging towards a wildcard berth. Their opponent tonight is trying to salvage this series, and perhaps the season, by stopping a five game losing streak tonight. The Fish have had some injury issues of their own, but the once-promising season is rapidly unraveling at a really bad time. Not only are they losing ground in the standings, but they are sliding dangerously far behind their rivals in the process.
So can Miami stop the bleeding tonight? Perhaps.
Jacob deGrom has a .500 record, but also an ERA under 3.00 and a nice WHIP of 1.17. However, his last two starts have been difficult. He has allowed 13 runs 9.2 innings, skyrocketing his 2.30 ERA to where it stands tonight, scarcely under three.
His opponent Urena is going to have to be much better though to capitalize on the opportunity. Urena has an ERA approaching six in just his second season in the Majors. His last two outings have been promising though. He has three runs in 11.2 innings and has three quality starts in his last five outings. The Marlins NEED him to be good again tonight and I think there is some decent longshot value in play tonight.
Look, on paper deGrom vs. Urena is a no-brainer. But if you just look at the last few weeks, this is a better matchup than it appears. I’m going to roll the dice that deGrom’s problems stretch one more start and that at SOME point, their injury-decimated lineup is going to struggle. I’ll take the Marlins to salvage the final game of what has been a really rough series for a huge plus-money value.