Marlins vs. Mets Pick – MLB September 15th

For some teams this time of year is all about fine tuning things for the postseason, for others it is fighting for a spot in the postseason, and lastly the others just want the season to get done so they can head out on vacation. The New York Mets fit into the first category. Fine tuning might be an understatement for the Mets, as they continue to throttle opponents on a nightly basis. The Mets are now on an 8 game winning streak, and have gone 9-1 in their last ten games. I remember how good the Mets were to start the season out, they looked like the surprise team of 2015. However, the Mets were largely overshadowed by how good the Houston Astros were playing. The Mets quickly turned in the opposite direction heading south instead of continuing their solid play.

A lot of so called experts laughed at the notion that people actually bought in to the Mets’ early season success. I’m sure a lot of people thought they were just going to head downwards and put themselves in an even bigger hole. The Mets, though, responded in a big way. I also think people believed the Mets were not going to be buyers at the trade deadline. They were in fact buying up the market, and got a critical piece to their success lately. Yoenis Cespedes made the jump from Detroit to New York with little difficulties, being a centerpiece of the Mets’ run in the second-half of the season. The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets share a similar story with regards to the moves they made at the trade deadline, and how it has correlated into turning it into a serious run at the World Series.

It has been a waste of a season for the Miami Marlins. They came into the 2015 season looking to be the Houston Astros or New York Mets. But all they’ve been is disappointing and failed to have a breakout season. They were getting Giancarlo Stanton back healthy after he took a pitch to the face and the Marlins were hoping Jose Fernandez was going to come back to form after missing part of last season. Fernandez has been great since coming back, but too little too late, and Fernandez can’t do it all alone. Speaking of Stanton, for a guy receiving the contract he has, a .265 batting average and 27 HRs simply isn’t good enough. Yeah, he can hit the ball plenty far, but a .265 average isn’t what you’re looking for from your best hitter. A couple teams on polar opposites square off again tonight, following a 1 run win from the Mets last night.

Miami Marlins vs. N.Y. Mets

Tom Koehler (9-13, 3.99 ERA) vs. Jacob deGrom (13-7, 2.40 ERA)

I have been pretty vocal regarding Tom Koehler’s abilities on the road vs at home in the past. At home Koehler can be one of the better bets in baseball, on the road it looks like he was replaced by a different guy. This has been happening all his career really, so this isn’t a new phenomenon for him. Nothing has changed here in 2015. Comparing his home and away numbers are significant. Koehler holds a 2.97 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home. Conversely, on the road, he posts a 4.92 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. We have a pretty big sample size out of Koehler to understand that these numbers are pretty consistent over his career. Those are trends that can be money betting on sports.

With deGrom we see polar opposites. deGrom cannot be touched at home and his numbers back that up. This season he has just a 1.57 ERA at home with a 0.92 WHIP. The acquisition of Cespedes was nice for the Mets, but deGrom is another reason why the Mets are in the dominant position they are in today. The offense is still slautering the ball. I thought variation was going to hit them hard we’d see regression out of the offense, but they just keep hammering the baseball. The Mets have averaged 6.8 runs per game through their eight game win streak. Another day of baseball with not many choices on a small card, a lot of big favorites today as well. It seems like the Mets are going to be one of the big winners today.

PICK: METS -1.5 (-102)