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Marlins vs. Nationals Pick MLB – August 28th

Is it just me, or has this summer absolutely flown by? We are only one day away from the start of the college football schedule, a week away from the NFL season, and a little over a month away from the MLB postseason. It baffles me that we are already into late August, but I wouldn’t change it for anything, because September and October sports are my favorite time of the year. We took a loss yesterday, as the Los Angeles Dodgers fell to the Cubs 3-2 at home. Clayton Kershaw pitched well enough, but the Dodgers reverted back to their old ways and didn’t provide him with any run support. Like the Dodgers, we will look to come back strong with a winner tonight.

Free MLB Pick:

Miami Marlins +210 at Los Angeles Dodgers -250 (Total: 7)

Henderson Alvarez (2-3, 3.86 ERA) vs. Stephen Strasburg (6-9, 3.00 ERA)

Stephen Strasburg returns home for the first time in three games. At home is where Strasburg feels at peace. You would think a pitcher of his caliber would be solid wherever it is, but Strasburg has seemingly struggled on the road, but been an absolute stud in Washington. This is quite common for most pitchers, but the difference between his road and home splits are quite far off from one another. For instance, away Strasburg holds an ERA of 4.98 with a 1-5 record. His WHIP and OBP aren’t too flattering either, where they are 1.35 and .331. However, take a look at what he has done at home this season: 1.58 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and .239 OBP. In Strasburg’s last start at home, he shut the Phillies down for no runs in 9 innings pitched. He followed that up with a couple of porous starts on the road, but he should bounce back nicely and put forth another solid start at home.

Henderson Alvarez started this season off looking like another integral part of a rock solid Marlins’ rotation, but he has since floundered as we enter the home stretch of the season. Alvarez is nevertheless a good pitcher who I think has a bright pitcher in the majors. He has made several starts this year where he allowed no runs and looked untouchable. Alvarez’s last three starts have been anything but though, posting a 6.50 ERA with a .349 OBP. This won’t be his first start against the Nationals, where in his last outing he was great, pitching 6.2 innings allowing only 2 runs. Unlike Strasburg, Alvarez actually improves when he’s on the road compared to when he’s at home. While his numbers aren’t mind boggling, there is one stat that has me turning my head. In 63 innings pitched he has surrendered only 1 dinger! Alvarez, thus, has no problem keeping the ball down, a talent that will come in handy against batters like Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth.

We have seen this act so often with Strasburg this season: get shelled on the road, come back home and look like the best pitcher in the league. There are times at home where Strasburg does look like the best pitcher, and he should be able to do that against the Marlins on Wednesday night. Strasburg does have a history against the Marlins this season, where on July 12th he got smashed for 7 runs in only 2 innings pitched. I expect a big performance from Strasburg on Wednesday, with Alvarez pitching well enough to keep this game under the total.

Free Pick: UNDER 7