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Marlins vs. Phillies Pick – April 7th

When you are running good, you are running good, and we are running good! We picked up another win last night when we backed the Los Angeles Angels at home against the Oakland A’s. The A’s jumped out to a 6-0 lead in the second inning, and it looked like we were going to lose. But in my pick yesterday I noted how bad Oakland starting pitcher Daniel Gossett is and that I expected the Angels to get to him early and often and that is what happened.

Gossett got pounded for five runs in just three and a third innings and opened the door for a big Angels comeback. The Angels came roaring back, led in part by yet another home run from Shohei Ohtani, and eventually overtook the lead and won the game 12-9.

It is always nice when you can steal wins like these. We certainly have lots of situations over the course of the season where things break the wrong way, so there is zero shame in winning like this.

Today we will shift focus to the National League and break down the matchup between the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Miami Marlins are in Philly for game two of a three-game series against the Phillies. The Phillies took game one Thursday 5-0, behind a strong start from Nick Pivetta. Pivetta shut down this Marlins offense to the tune of five and two-thirds of shutout ball, allowing just four hits and striking out nine.

Miami will turn to young left-hander Dillon Peters (1-0 0.00 ERA). The Phillies will counter with Vince Velasquez (0-1 13.50 ERA). The Phillies are -155 money line favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight runs. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05 PM PST from Citizens Bank Ballpark.

Both of these teams have gotten off to a slow start. Both teams have just two wins on the season, and not much is expected out of either team this year. The Phillies made a couple of sexy moves in the offseason when they signed Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, but I don’t see that being enough to put this team over the top and make them legit playoff contenders.

For Miami, they unloaded all of their talent in the offseason, as new owner Derek Jeter attempts to rebuild the squad in his image. The Marlins weren’t going to win this year with what they had last year, but losing Giancarlo Stanton, and Marcell Ozuna still hurts pretty bad if you are a Miami fan.

The Marlins will try and even up the series at one game apiece when they send Dillon Peters to the mound. Dillon Peters has been a prized prospect now for a couple of years in the Miami organization and is getting his first taste of a full season in the starting rotation. The 25-year-old lefty enjoyed great success in the minor leagues where he ran up a 22-13 record with an ERA of just 2.40 in three seasons. Peters played in single-A, double-A, and triple-A last season and was great everywhere he went and was very stingy allowing base runners with a WHIP of under one.

Peters made his first start of the season against the Cubs and their formidable offense, and he completely shut them down. Peters pitched six innings of shutout baseball and allowed six hits in the Miami win. The Marlins are hoping to see more of that same from Peters tonight when he faces a Phillies team ranked twenty-ninth in batting average so far this year.

The Phillies have struggled on both offense and on the mound this year. They are struggling at the plate, and their starting pitching has left something to be desired, to say the least. They hope that today’s starter, Vince Velasquez, can turn things around against Miami.

Velasquez did not have a great start to the season as he got rocked for seven runs in just two and two-thirds of an inning against the soft swinging Atlanta Braves. Velasquez hasn’t been known for his great stuff since making the Phillies starting rotation in 2016.

Velasquez was just 2-7 in fifteen starts last season with an ERA of 5.12. Those are some pretty terrible numbers in the pitcher-friendly National League. He is still very young at twenty-five years old, but as the Phillies are looking to win now, you wonder how long they are going to be able to handle these growing pains from the young right hander.

Neither of these teams are any good this year. The Phillies are going to probably end up slightly better, but they will both struggle to win games this season. So, I was a little surprised to see this number so big. The Phillies laying a dollar and a half against a similar level team, where I think they are clearly getting the worst of the starting pitching matchup? That just doesn’t feels right to me.

I am not going to overreact and think the Dillon Peters is going to look as good as he did in his first start, every time out, but this guy has great stuff and is the real deal. He is young and untested, but he has potential to be an impact starter for this rebuilding Marlines team.

It seems to me this is a close game where the only thing really separating them is this oversized money line. So, I am going to snatch up the great price and back the underdog in this one.

Peters should be at least serviceable against this Phillies offense that can’t hit water if they fell out of a boat right now. And we saw how bad Velasquez can be in his last start. I suppose it might be a little bit of a stretch to call this game an even one as Miami is on the road, but with the added juice I certainly think we are on the right side. Give me the Miami Marlins +135 today from the City of Brotherly Love!

The Bet: Miami Marlins +135

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