Marlins vs. Red Sox Pick – MLB July 8th

Who is having the more disappointing season, the Marlins or Red Sox? By all accounts both of them could be doing much better at this point, but a lot of people had the Marlins pegged as the team that was going to have a breakout season. Giancarlo Stanton got a big contract and it took a while to warm up, but he certainly has turned the corner, hammering 27 home runs on the season, which could have been higher if it wasn’t for the lackadaisical start for him. It unfortunately hasn’t resulted in the Marlins being the breakout team of 2015. That honor is reserved for the Houston Astros, which goes without saying. The Marlins at 35-49 have some work to do, and will have to put that start behind them when the All-Star break commences shortly. There are positives to take along with it. Stanton of course, but a pitcher like Tom Koehler has been turning on some good starts for the Marlins. They also got some good news with the return of pitcher Jose Fernandez. Albeit he has only had one start, they aren’t rushing him back, but Fernandez holds the key to success for the Marlins in my opinion. He’s the ace and the workhorse of that pitching staff.

The Red Sox can’t be happy with their start either, a 40-45 start isn’t what they had in the works close to the break, but a strong second half could still yield them a postseason spot. It is quite funny with this team, one year it’s the World Series, the next they aren’t even on the radar. In other words, there hasn’t been much in way of consistency from one year to the next. Neither of these teams have to be happy with the way the first half has gone, and I’m not too happy about how last night went. What was that? Chad Billingsley made the Dodgers look like he was pitching for them circa 2010. The Dodgers can score 10 runs one night and do nothing against a pitcher that hasn’t won a game since 2013 the next. Moving forward to Wednesday where we seek out a winner.

Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox

Tom Koehler (7-4, 3.52 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (4-9, 6.08 ERA)

When the Red Sox acquired Rick Porcello from the Tigers years back I didn’t think it was the wisest choice. He was just coming off a big season with the Tigers and was looking to get paid. The Red Sox were those suitors and haven’t been getting their return with him, which I called back then. One good season shouldn’t equate to a big contract, but we see it happen time and time again. There needs to be a much larger sample size than just one year to ascertain if a pitcher is for real or not. Porcello surely wishes this season wasn’t real, as his ERA has ballooned to 6.08, and in his last three starts, has a 11.08 ERA with a 2.08 WHIP. In his last five starts, he has given up more than 3 runs in four.

Koehler has been a magician for the Marlins at home this season, no one has been able to touch him, but on the road has been a different story. Note that Koehler possesses a 1.68 ERA at home, but on the road that number changes drastically to a 5.56 ERA. The Red Sox offense has been on fire lately, averaging 7 runs over their last five games. We’ve been waiting for the offense to come around and lately they haven’t disappointed in that regard. I like some runs to be scored tonight in this game, so the OVER 9 is a worthy play to be made in this one.

PICK: OVER 9 RUNS (-110)