Marlins vs. Reds Pick MLB – July 21st

We pulled a push out of late trouble last night as the Padres stacked on some late runs to clip the Giants 5-2. I’d rather have a winner, but we will gladly take our money back and try again after a game that looked like it was headed towards the loss column. Speaking of the “loss column,” Madison Bumgarner found himself there for the fourth time in his abbreviated season and has yet to notch a single victory.

What went wrong in San Francisco this season?? If “everything” is too cliché and snarky a reply for your liking, you can simply say, “It’s almost August and Madison Bumgarner doesn’t have a win.”

‘Nuff said.

It should be a good weekend of baseball, highlighted by the Cubs taking their six-game winning streak home to face the Cardinals, the Rockies (4) and Pirates (5) putting their dueling win-streaks head-to-head, and an awesome nightcap between the Nats at Arizona with Max Scherzer facing Zach Goodly.

Let’s see if we can start the weekend off with a winner.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Miami Marlins +100 at Cincinnati Reds -110 (Total: 10)
Jose Urena (7-4, 3.93 ERA) vs. Homer Bailey (2-3, 10.13 ERA)

It’s not a typo. Homer Bailey has a four-digit ERA. In fairness, he has only made five starts and the first two were unmitigated disasters after returning from nearly three years of cumulative injuries. His third and four starts were both wins in which he allowed only a single run. His most recent outing was another absolute disaster, allowing eight earned runs in four innings. It is somewhat (very) surprising he and the Reds are FAVORED tonight.

Jose Urena’s last trip to Cincinnati saw him touched up for five runs in the first inning, including a grand slam, before setting down to pitch five scoreless innings in a 6-3 loss. However, he has been far sharper than Bailey and has actually been pretty good most of the season for the Fish. I like him to have a substantial edge tonight in the head-to-head pitching matchup.

Bailey had two good starts, but even in those starts, he is not the same guy who threw a pair of no-hitters earlier in the decade. He has only struck out 17 batters in 21.1 innings and has walked 11. You need to miss bats in Great American Ballpark, especially against a power-packed team like Miami.

Look for the Marlins to pile up some runs on the scuffling Reds and to be a great value at even money tonight. Cincinnati has been outscored 60-21 on their seven-game post-break home stand. That’s pretty ugly stuff. I think the carnage continues tonight.


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