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Mets vs. Braves MLB Pick – April 14th

This is the third straight day I’ve had a wager on this series, and we’ll look to make it three straight days of a winning bet in Atlanta. We were on the Mets on Friday and then cashed the Braves yesterday. Atlanta chased Jason Vargas out of the game before the 1st inning was even completed. Vargas has been a mess thus far to start the year, and it’s debateable whether he is going to make it to the end of the season.

I just don’t know how the Mets are going to allow him to go out there and pitch like that for much longer. At the same time, they do not want to dig deep into the minors and rush a youngster into action. Ruining an arm like that could have longer lasting implications. Beyond Vargas, the Mets have a rotation that not many hitters want to see.

The Braves are going to have to see the most talented of the lot on Sunday Night Baseball this evening. They’re also going to have to deal with a Jacob deGrom who is coming off one of his worst starts in two years. He sure didn’t look like the same guy we witnessed last year in his most recent outing.

deGrom was roughed up with a porous performance against the Twins. It was certainly surprising, but it’s still early in the year and he had a bad start early last season as well. It’s all about how a pitcher responds, and deGrom caught fire shortly after allowing 4 runs in his third start of 2018.

That was against the Marlins, so it wasn’t like it was against some stellar offense. In any event, the season ended up going pretty well for deGrom I’d have to say. The Braves will counter deGrom with Julio Teheran, who is coming off a bad outing of his own. Head below for our free Mets vs. Braves pick.

N.Y. Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Mets -155/Braves +125
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Jacob deGrom (2-1, 3.18 ERA)
  • Julio Teheran (1-1, 6.00 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

It wasn’t an outing you expect to see from deGrom, but by the end of the season it’s likely going to be long forgotten. If he happens to continue to struggle, well then, we’re probably going to look back at it as the beginning of his struggles. He lasted just 4 innings, while allowing 8 hits and 6 earned runs. September 5th of 2017 is the last time he gave up that many runs in a start. He reacted well because in his next showing, deGrom gave up only 3 hits and 2 runs to the Reds. This will be the fourth start for him in 2019.
His first two outings were nearly flawless.

deGrom was sharp across 13 innings of work against the Nationals and Marlins, as he allowed only 8 hits and no runs. That’s how you open a season after just winning a Cy Young. It makes it all the more surprising of how easily the Twins made it look against him on the 9th. After it was all said and done in 4 innings, deGrom was throwing an average of 24.2 pitchers per innings, which is crazy for a guy who usually goes fast. After a performance like that, it’d be surprising if he struggles again. The Braves are hitting .236 against him in 216 at-bats.

If deGrom doesn’t have an A+ performance, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the Mets lose this game. Last season that would have definitely been the case. 2 or 3 runs allowed by deGrom would have mean an instant loss for the Mets. However, this offense has been deadly, and despite losing last night, 11-7, the bats were out and swinging with success again.

After the Braves went up 4-0, the Mets came right back with 4 runs of their own. It came against a solid pitcher, Sean Newcomb, as well. He isn’t a gas can that they were taking advantage of. The Mets are 3rd in the majors with an average of 6.29 runs scored per game.

Note that they finished 23rd with only 4.17 runs per game in 2018. Teheran has done well against them, but he also hasn’t faced them playing this hot. He also hasn’t been pitching well recently. Teheran owns a 6.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP entering Sunday night. Opposing offenses have a .348 OBP against him. Give me deGrom to respond after falling flat in his previous appearance. If it weren’t for that poor showing, we’re likely looking at a price way more expensive than this so we can try and use it to our advantage.

The Bet
METS

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