Mets vs. Brewers MLB Pick – May 3rd

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers meet at Miller Park for a three-game series over the weekend. The Mets head into Milwaukee on the heels of a four-game split against the Reds. They lost a tight 1-0 game with deGrom on the mound, and then responded for a 1-0 win yesterday behind an incredible effort by Noah Syndergaard.

It was a tough loss for deGrom, but it was also a good sign to see him shaping back into form. There were some sweaty hands as deGrom looked off before that outing. There was also a brief injury scare that forced him to miss a start. However, after shooting down the Reds, fans can rest assure that he hasn’t lost the it factor. We’ll see if he can duplicate it in his next outing.

The Brewers split their recent four-game series as well. They won the first two against the Rockies and then dropped the last two. Their latest loss was a 11-6 decision on Thursday. Freddy Peralta lasted just 4 innings for the Brewers, allowing 8 hits and 6 earned runs. He clearly didn’t have it and likely should have been pulled earlier to perhaps have a shot at the win. Offensively they weren’t too bad with 6 runs on the board, but you can’t win many games by allowing double digits.

Milwaukee are already behind by 4 games, as the St. Louis Cardinals have taken the initiative to jump out in front in the NL Central. The Cardinals are on fire with a record of 20-11 going into the weekend. There are other teams in this division that aren’t going to make it easier than it was last season on the Brew Crew as well. They won the NL Central by a game over the Cubs, but have a lot more company in 2019.

Christian Yelich can’t do it all for Milwaukee and it’s likely going to cost them. The Mets are going to find themselves in a tight race this year, too. The Braves, Mets, and Phillies all have a solid shot at the NL East. The Mets are currently 1.5 games behind the Phillies. Steven Matz will attempt to get them a bit closer, while Brandon Woodruff will get the call for the Brewers. Head below for our free Mets vs. Brewers pick.

N.Y. Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -128/Mets +108
  • O/U: 9

Pitching Matchup:

  • Steven Matz (3-1, 3.68 ERA)
  • Brandon Woodruff (3-1, 5.17 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

The Brewers need some horses in their starting rotation to survive in the NL Central. Freddy Peralta might be the next pitcher to lose his spot in the rotation after getting punished Thursday. Jhoulys Chacin is at the top of their rotation, so that pretty much says it all. Chacin has a 5.24 ERA which says it all. The Brewers’ starters have a combined ERA of 5.28 for 25th in the major leagues. The bullpen hasn’t been much better for the Brewers, as they’re 23rd with a 4.90 ERA.

With an ERA of 5.17, Woodruff has been slightly above the team average of 5.28. In any case, Woodruff has been way too inconsistent to hold this team up. Given how badly they’ve been pitching, it’s crazy that they are a 17-16 team to begin with. Staying above .500 is difficult when you have starters getting belted like they have been this season.

In the last two days alone, the Brewers have allowed 22 runs with Peralta and Jacob Barnes out there struggling to get it done. Barnes was quickly demoted after posting just 1 inning of work in that one. Chase Anderson was scratched with a finger laceration and Barnes was unable to take advantage of the opportunity presented to him. Woodruff hopes to have better success than those two on Friday. It isn’t like he’s been sizzling with his 5.17 ERA , 1.47 WHIP, and .353 OBA.

Woodruff has been at his worst at home, with an ERA of 5.75 and 1.67 WHIP in Milwaukee. He has pitched a total of 20.1 innings in Milwaukee, having allowed 26 hits and 13 runs. Not good by any measurement. The Mets have been solid against him as well, with a .292 batting average and .333 OBP in 24 at-bats.

His counterpart, Steven Matz, enters with an ERA of 6.23 in his previous three outings. He’s been a totally different pitcher on the road than at home. Note that Matz has a 1.50 ERA in New York, though that falls to an ERA of 7.15 on the road. The final score is likely to get into the double digits to push this matchup OVER the total in Milwaukee.

The Bet
OVER 8.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.