Mets vs. Brewers MLB Pick – May 5th

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers will play the conclusion of their three-game series on Sunday, with the Brewers gunning for a sweep. Milwaukee beat the Mets with some solid pitching over the last two days, as they held them to a run Friday and 3 on Saturday. The Mets have hit the wall pretty good after a hot start over the first few weeks in April.

They’ve slipped below .500 and are looking at a record of 16-17 going into Sunday. The pitching hasn’t been bad, but suddenly the offense has reverted back to 2018. They couldn’t buy runs last season, as they finished 23rd with an average of 4.17 runs scored per game. The Mets got better later in the season to bump that number up, but it was well below 4 runs for most of the year. Now after a pretty nice start out of the gate, the Mets find themselves stuck in mud at the plate.

The Mets acquired Robinson Cano to address the offensive drought, but the Mariners did the exact same thing with him and it didn’t work out. Seattle was a team that could pitch, though struggled to consistently score runs. Bringing in Cano helped a bit in a sense. Did they get anywhere, though? The Mariners didn’t even find the postseason with Cano on their roster.

Cano is hitting .248 with 3 long balls, so that’s not exactly what they were looking for when they signed him. They could have gotten that production from somebody else for a whole lot cheaper. I think he’s at a point in his career where he’s content going through the motions and collecting his pay.

That isn’t what the Mets are looking for when they were desperate for runs last season. They might find it difficult this afternoon against Zach Davies, who has emerged as the best pitcher in the Brewers’ arsenal to open the season. Head below for our free Mets vs. Brewers pick.

N.Y. Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -137/Mets +118
  • O/U: 9

Pitching Matchup:

  • Jason Vargas (1-1, 5.75 ERA)
  • Zach Davies (3-0, 1.38 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

It’s Jason Vargas time for the New York Mets, which means cover your eyes and hope for the best if you’re a Mets’ fan. That said, Vargas has been on fire recently and at his best this season. He finished with an ERA of 5.77, so there wasn’t much to celebrate for him in 2018.

Vargas got his World Series ring and has been a lot of money since 2005, so I think he’s quite content with how his career has transpired. This is just a cherry on top for him. His last three outings have been pretty outstanding, though. He can take a bow for the work he did against the Cardinals, Phillies, and Reds.

Vargas allowed 3 hits and a run in each appearance for a 1.93 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Although, two of those starts came at home where he’s been better overall this season. Not like it’s great numbers, but his effort on the road has been pretty putrid to say the least. Vargas holds an ERA 6.75 and 2.14 WHIP on the road. He had a solid game against the Cardinals, but his others have been less than desirable.

Milwaukee has done a decent job hitting against Vargas, as they hold a batting average of .286 and .352 OBP in 49 at-bats. Following three excellent starts for Vargas, expect him to regress hard against the Brewers. That is not usual for him to be pitching like that, and when it happens, a tough game tends to follow. We’ll see if the Brewers can get to Vargas, but I see them being fine with at least 5 runs on the board.

That would likely be ample runs with Davies on the bump. Davies has been fire throughout his first six outings of mistake free baseball. He hasn’t made many of them, as his worst game wasn’t bad by any stretch of the imagination. Davies surrendered 2 runs against the Cardinals and Reds on the road, but hasn’t allowed 2 runs otherwise.

In 16 innings at home, Davies hasn’t allowed a single earned run. Opposing teams have scored 3 runs with on the mound, but none of them were charged to Davies. He is playing the best baseball of his career right now, and we should expect him to get decent run support against Vargas. I would look at the Brewers to get the win and sweep on Sunday.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.