Mets vs. Cardinals MLB Pick – July 7th

The Dodgers finished off the series sweep of the Diamondbacks to move to an insane 36-11 at home on the season and open up a commanding 5 ½ game lead in the hyper-competitive National League West. Coupled with the Rockies disappointing home split with the Reds, which pushed them to 8 ½ back, the Dodgers are now sitting pretty heading into the final weekend before the All-Star Break.

Unfortunately, I got a little too greedy last night. The Dodgers won, but only 5-4, so my aggressive +145 runline play fell a single run short. Alas, we will try to start the final weekend of the first half with a better result tonight and notch a winner to jumpstart the weekend. There are some fun series to choose from, including a marquee matchup tonight between the Brewers and Yankees the day after Milwaukee delivered resounding 11-3 statement win over the Cubs. The Cubs look to get off the mat in a weekend series at home against the Pirates, and the hot Royals try to cool of the much-hotter Dodgers in their nearly invincible home ballpark.

Today’s MLB Pick:

New York Mets +108 at St. Louis Cardinals -116 (Total: 7.5)
Jacob deGrom (8-3, 3.55 ERA) vs. Carlos Martinez (6-7, 3.15 ERA)

After getting washed out a few days ago against the Nats, Jacob deGrom gets another chance against another top tier pitcher in Carlos Martinez. deGrom has been MONEY in his last four starts, allowing just three earned runs over 32 innings of work and striking out 31 batters. He has allowed only 14 base runners over his last 23 innings and has struck out 25 batters in that span – dominating stuff. He has struggled against the Cardinals in the past, which is a likely reason for underdog status tonight. deGrom has posted a 1-2 record with a 5.82 ERA in three career starts.

However, one could make the easy argument that facing the Cardinals was FAR tougher in years past. Their vaunted offense is no longer feared, and I expect the guy with a 0.82 ERA over his last four starts to be the pitcher we see tonight at Busch Stadium.

Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez has also been very good over the last few months, earning an All-Star berth for the second time. He was roughed up in his last outing, allowing five runs in five innings against the Nationals, but prior to that outing had posted four straight quality starts, allowing just five runs over 27 innings and fanning 33 batters.

Tonight should be owned by the pitchers, making the eight run total a little high for my liking. I’ll take a nice 3-1 type ballgame tonight and hopefully a stress-free cover.


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