Mets vs. Dodgers Pick MLB – August 12th

Yesterday was a nice way to end the week, picking up an easy victory with the Dodgers on the runline at +125 as they dusted off the formerly-hot Rays to complete a three game series sweep 8-2.  The Dodgers  have now won 37 of their last 45 games and are getting close to “some of the best two months in the history of baseball” territory.  Meanwhile the sweep left the Rays three full games back of the Red Sox in the AL East and just a game and a half up on the Orioles for the final wild card spot in the American League.

Monday kicks off some new matchups, and a while no projected playoff teams are going head-to-head, a lot of playoff hopefuls have a chance to fatten up on some teams they should be able to exploit.  SO can teams like Cincinnati, Los Angeles, Oakland and Detroit handle their business and win series against the Cubs, Mets, Blue Jays and White Sox?  Baseball is a funny game, and anyone can beat anyone at any time.  Just take the Marlins winning two of three against Atlanta (who had previously won 14 straight) this weekend.

Let’s dig inside one particular matchup, and see if we can start the week off as we ended the last one; with a nice winning pick.

New York Mets +183 at Los Angeles Dodgers -191 (Total: 7)

Jenrry Mejia (1-1, 1.96 ERA) vs. Ricky Nolasco (8-9, 3.65 ERA)

The Dodger express kept on rolling this weekend, dispatching of the Tampa Rays with a casual excellence that the rest of the league should find alarming.  In their last five games (all wins) the Dodgers have outscored their opponents (two of the best teams in the league, St. Louis and Tampa Bay) 38-13.  They aren’t just winning these days, they are dominating.

That makes for a tough challenge for the Mets young  23-year old hurler, Jenrry Mejia.  He has looked fantastic in his first three starts, but he hasn’t had to pitch his way through this Dodgers lineup yet either.  He has struck out 18 hitters in 18 1/3 innings, and I expect him to notch a few more K’s tonight, but also to give up a few runs.

The runline of just seven is giving an awful lot of respect to the rookie in just his fourth start and to Nolasco, a middle of the road pitcher at best.  I expect the Dodgers to keep on doing what they have been, score runs in droves.  That makes the seven run total seem really low…  I’ll take the over.  I like the Dodgers, but -191 is a little steep given the unknown of a rookie fireballer facing a team for the first time.  However, even if he is able to give them six great innings, just ask Matt Harvey how reliable the Mets bullpen is at preserving wins.

Give me some runs tonight in an interesting matchup.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL OVER 7