Mets vs. Dodgers Pick MLB – July 3rd

We notched another stress-free winner last night with the Brewers and Philies lighting up the scoreboard and taking care of the OVER by the fourth inning. You gotta love OVER bets that cash before the middle innings, though admittedly, it made that game a LOT less interesting to watch from that point on…

The Holiday Weekend is in full effect for those of you in the states, and what better way to start a long festive weekend than with some fantastic baseball. There is a matinee game between the Marlins and Cubbies, a bevy of early evening games and a nice late night ESPN matchup between Mets young hurler Noah Syndergard and the reigning Cy Young winner, Clayton Kershaw.

Enjoy the Holiday weekend – be safe and have fun – and let’s see if we can stack up a couple winners as well…

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Today’s Free Pick:

New York Mets +230 at Los Angeles Dodgers -250 (Total: 6)

Noah Syndergaard (3-4, 3.59 ERA) vs. Clayton Kershaw (5-6, 3.20 ERA)

Look, when the run total is just six and you can get nearly two and a half to one odds on the underdog you have to take a look at it. This isn’t the NBA with the Knicks drudging their sorry squad into Golden State for a preordained massacre. It’s Major League Baseball, where they worst team wins sixty and best lose sixty. It’s always intruiging to me when a line swings this wide, especially considering the underdog starting pitcher is really good.

So let’s dig a little deeper.

The Mets offense has famously struggled. They have scored two or less runs in nine of their last ten games and have been shutout three times. Aside from a seven run explosion, this offense has been pitiful. They are fresh off a series against the Cubs where they scored just a SINGLE run in three games. Yet, however pitiful their offense has been, they are only 4-6 in their last ten games, which tells you the pitching, both starting and otherwise, has been getting the job done. Even in their losses they have lost by a single run three times and only been blown out once.

Meanwhile, Kershaw’s season statline looks very odd; un-Kershaw like, but there is reason to be optimistic about his 0.95 WHIP in his last three starts and his WHIP of just 1.04 for the season. It tells me Kershaw deserves far better than the 0-3 record in his last three starts.

Which also brings me to a larger point. Yes, the Mets cannot hit. But neither can the Dodgers when Kershaw is on the mound. They have lost ALL THREE games in his last three starts; all quality outings by Kershaw. Should they win tonight? Of course. Are they a logical 2:5 favorite? Nope. Not even close.

Syndergaard has been better than Kershaw in his last three starts, posting a 2.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. His team is 2-1 in those starts, despite not generating much (any) offense.

I’m rolling the dice for a little pre-Fourth fireworks tonight and a big payday. I’ll take the Mets with a ton of underdog juice on my side.

Free Pick: New York Mets to WIN +230