We notched a relatively easy winner last night with the Rockies and Diamondbacks total tucking well under the lofty eleven run threshold. But that easy win doesn’t mean it wasn’t a thrilling game. The Diamondbacks scored two in the eighth to take a 3-2 lead, only for Nolan Arenado’s flare for the drama to remain strong with a two-run triple in the bottom of the inning to retake the lead and secure the eventual 4-3 win. The West wasn’t supposed to be the best and most thrilling division heading into the season, but as we near the halfway point, it is hard to argue it hasn’t become just that…
We have an early balance of action this afternoon on Wednesday get-away day with the Reds and Rays, Nats and Marlins and Cubs and Padres all playing in the afternoon, but if you don’t mind staying up a little late on the East Coast, you can still catch some good evening baseball with Game Two of the Rox and Backs and the Dodgers and the “holy hell how do I pitch to this guy?!?” Cody Bellinger who has gone from “interesting prospect” to “Rookie of the Year favorite” to “MVP Candidate” in the matter of eight weeks.
Let’s see if we can grab a third-straight winner this evening.
Today’s MLB Pick:
New York Mets +200 at Los Angeles Dodgers -210
Tyler Pill (0-2, 3.75 ERA) vs. Rich Hill (3-3, 5.14 ERA)
No one may be able to get Cody Bellinger out, but that doesn’t mean Rich Hill will be able to get enough outs either. Are the Dodgers the favorite tonight? Of course. Is it a reasonable 1:2 laydown?? I’m not so sure…
Rich Hill has struggled this season, posting an ERA over 5.00 and failing to log a quality start this entire season. That stat is a LITTLE misleading, as he has had some good outings, only they have fallen an inning or two short of the six-inning threshold. That is both encouraging and ODD. Starting pitchers aren’t stretched as far as they used to be, but to routinely go four or five innings? Not normal either. In his last outing, Hill got blasted seven runs in four innings and the Dodgers are just 3-4 in his last seven starts.
Opposing hi is Tyler Pill. The 27-year old has only made five career starts, but the two this season have been reasonable. He has allowed four runs in ten innings across two starts with a few relief appearances in the mix as well. He is a starter by dire necessity rather than Mets ideal choice, but he has shown he is capable of making the most of the opportunity. He was 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA in eight AAA starts this season.
The biggest reason I am willing to take a BIG leap tonight on a massive dog is Rich Hill’s prior performances against the Mets. He is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in four games. Add in that he is fresh off the worst outing of the season, and I see a real opportunity to steal a big payday tonight.
It’s a long shot, and about as wide a line as you will see without a Cy Young contender on the mound, so balance your wager accordingly. I’m taking a shot tonight on the Mets.
Today’s MLB Pick: NEW YORK METS TO WIN +200