Mets vs. Giants MLB Pick – July 18th

The New York Mets look to follow up a success interleague series against the Minnesota Twins with some more winning out west. The Mets will be in San Francisco for the next four days. Noah Syndergaard will be put on display for potential trade suitors Thursday night. The Mets have been talked about as sellers all season long. However, I don’t think they’re going to be as willing to give up guys like Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom easily.

It’s going to take a lot of valuable assets going the Mets’ way for them to initiate a trade. The asking price might be too high for a lot of teams. They’ll instead look at Wheeler and Vargas. While Wheeler just got hurt, it could make for an opportunity for teams to get him at a cheaper price. It’s not like he suffered a season-ending injury, so teams are still going to be looking at him. The Rays are one notable team who may pull the trigger on a Wheeler deal.

The Mets are 44-51 going into Thursday. With that, they are 5 games behind the final wildcard in the National League. Virtually the entire conference is in the mix at the moment, so that is a lot of games when you look at it that way. There are seven teams ahead of them who are sitting outside of the postseason right now. They’re currently tied with the Reds, so that leaves just the Miami Marlins out of the picture. Anyone can win it, although there doesn’t seem to be any confidence in the Mets getting it done.

There might be a few Mets’ fans who believe in their team, but I really hope a record just above .500 isn’t what it’s going to take to reach the Wild Card Game. A best-case scenario has the Mets finishing somewhere there. The Brewers own the second wildcard with a record of 50-47. I think it’s going to take more than a record with three wins above .500 by the end of the season. Syndergaard will do his best to get the Mets closer to even tonight. The Giants will counter with Madison Bumgarner, so this is an attractive pitching matchup on paper. Head below for our free Mets vs. Giants pick.

N.Y. Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Mets -112/Giants -108
  • O/U: 7

Pitching Matchup:

  • Noah Syndergaard (7-4, 4.55 ERA)
  • Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 3.86 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Noah Syndergaard’s numbers have not been stellar this season. If you were to just look at his career in a snapshot of 2019, Syndergaard would look like a very average pitcher. This is only one season, though, and he’s shown throughout his career that he can be one of the better pitchers in the major leagues.

This is the first year in his career that Syndergaard is on track for an ERA above 4.00. He posted ERA’s of 2.60, 2.97, and 3.03 the past three seasons, so certainly something has been off for him in 2019. It could be the trade talk that has thrown him off or he’s tired of pitching on the road to nowhere on the Mets this season.

Perhaps once the trade deadline comes and goes we’ll start to see Syndergaard get back into his element. He enters tonight with an ERA of 4.58 with a 1.42 WHIP and .338 OBA in his previous three games. There hasn’t been much fluctuation between the road and home for Thor. He holds a 4.65 ERA on the road and a 4.45 ERA at home.

What is interesting about Syndergaard is his production at night and during the day. This isn’t a split that matters to most pitchers, but it’s worth noting with him. He has posted an ERA of 5.57 and 1.46 WHIP at night and a 2.70 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP. Usually you’d discard something like that, but he’s pitched in 72.2 innings at night in 2019. That’s a healthy enough sample size.

Syndergaard is flirting with getting traded, while Bumgarner is already at third base in his trade discussions. In fact, the Giants tried to trade him a month ago, but of course, nothing ended up happening. There are four teams seriously interested in his services: the Astros, Phillies, Brewers, and Twins.

He is highly sought-after, especially recently having shown he is still elite. Bumgarner is pitching like he’s out to prove something. He posted a 1.29 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in his last three starts. Lost amid trade talk is the fact that the Giants are just 2.5 games behind all of the sudden for a wildcard. They are still playing for something despite Bumgarner likely going elsewhere.

I expect him to pitch well again tonight and catch the Mets napping on the west coast. This is a difficult road trip for the Mets, as they go from Miami to Minnesota and now they’re in San Francisco. Expect them to slow down following four straight wins. Consider going with the better value on the home team in this matchup.

The Bet
GIANTS
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.