New York Mets vs Miami Marlins MLB Pick – July 31

The MLB is set up with another great slate of baseball on Sunday. Fifteen games are up on the board throughout July 31. One of these games will be between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. These two teams are on opposite sides of the standings, but will look to get a big win in this one. This game will start at around 1:40 PM Eastern time.

New York has earned a record of 63-37 so far on the season, which has them in first place of the NL East. The Mets have won five games in a row and have gone 7-3 throughout their last 10. New York has a three and a half game lead on the Atlanta Braves. The Mets will look to come out quickly in this one on the road.

The Marlins have put up a record of 47-54 throughout this season, which has them in fourth place of the NL East. Miami has lost their last two games and are 4-6 in their last 10 games. The Marlins are six and a half games back on a wild card spot entering this one. Miami will look to get a big win at home on Sunday afternoon.

These two teams have had opposite seasons so far, but will look for a big win in this divisional game. The Mets have been strong as of late and will look to get going early. Miami will look to bounce back at home with a win on Sunday. If either team can grab an early lead in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
New York Mets -1 ½ (+120) -155 Over 7 (-105)
Miami Marlins +1 ½ (-140) +130 Under 7 (-115)
Team Data New York Mets Miami Marlins
Overall Record 63-37 47-54
Away/ Home Record 32-20 22-25
Batting Average .253 .238
Batting Average Away/ Home .254 .241
ERA 3.55 3.87
ERA Away/ Home 3.81 3.68

Betting Trends

New York Mets

  • 16-8 in July games
  • 10-7 when playing on a Sunday
  • 30-12 against divisional opponents
  • 22-15 in day games
  • 42-22 against right handers
  • 35-27 after a win
  • 5-8 after three or more straight wins
  • 37-19 against team with a losing record

Miami Marlins

  • 13-14 in July
  • 8-8 when playing on Sunday
  • 24-21 against division rivals
  • 20-20 in day games
  • 36-44 against right handed starters
  • 27-27 after a loss
  • 16-29 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met up thirteen times throughout this season. The first four games were in New York, where the Mets won three of the four. New York won two of the next three as well on the road. The Marlins and Mets split the next four game set. New York has won the first two games of this set. The Mets have outscored Miami 60-36 in those games.


The Mets have been strong at the plate throughout the season. New York has a .253 batting average, which is 6th in the league. The Mets have earned an OBP of .325, which is 5th in the MLB. New York has posted a .726 OPS, which is 10th in the league. The Mets have a BA of .257 against right handers.

Miami has struggled a bit hitting the ball on the season. The Marlins have a batting average of .238, which is 22nd in the MLB. Miami has put up a .301 on base percentage, which is 25th in the league. The Marlins have earned an OPS of .676, which is 27th in the MLB. Miami has hit .244 against righties this season.

New York has the edge with the bats in their hands entering this one. The Mets have been strong hitting the ball this season and will look to remain hot. New York has 20 hits and 10 runs over the first two games of this series. The Marlins have 11 hits and 4 runs in those games. Miami will need to get their bats going after getting shut out on Saturday. 

Pitching Preview

Taijuan Walker will likely get the nod at pitcher for New York in this one. Walker has started in 17 games this season, going 8-2 in those matchups. He has posted a 2.67 ERA and a WHIP of 1.11 in those outings. Walker pitched six innings in his last start against the New York Yankees. He gave up seven hits and three runs in the win.

I expect Pablo Lopez to get the start on the mound for the Marlins on Sunday afternoon. Lopez has earned a record of 7-5 throughout his 20 starts on the season. He has put up an ERA of 3.03 and a 1.04 WHIP in those games. Lopez’s last start was against the Cincinnati Reds. He gave up two hits and one run through seven innings in the win.

These two pitchers have been solid on the season and will look for a big win in this one. Walker has won his last five decisions, while Lopez has won two of his last three decisions. The Mets have a slight edge in the bullpen in this one. New York’s bullpen has a 3.49 ERA, which is 8th in the league. Miami’s relievers have an ERA of 4.02, which is 18th in the MLB.

Pick Overview

These two teams have been solid throughout this season and will look for a big win in this one. Miami has struggled a bit in this series and will look to avoid the sweep with a win on Sunday. The Marlins can match New York’s starting pitching in this one. If Miami can hit well early at home, I think they could earn the win.

Bovada has New York listed as a -155 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Mets will win this game around 60.8 percent of the time. I think that this line should be closer to even with New York on the road. Sweeping a divisional opponent in no easy task either. As big underdogs, I like the value on the Marlins to earn the win.

The Bet
Miami Marlins
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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