Mets vs. Marlins MLB Pick – July 13th

The Miami Marlins poured it on in the 3rd inning to erase a 2-0 hole quickly. The Mets jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but that lead evaporated just minutes later. They wouldn’t go on to score until the game was out of reach in the 9th inning. At that point, it was an 8-2 game and the Mets just added a couple of runs to make the score look better. 8-4 is better than 8-2, I suppose.

Both of these teams have been stuck in a downward pattern, with the Marlins winning just their second game in eight outings yesterday. Meanwhile, the Mets lost their 13th game in the last 16. Team morale in the clubhouse is at an all-time low, as the Mets sink lower and lower with the trade deadline approaching.

It’s hard to feel confident as a player when all you hear is trade rumors swirling around the clubhouse. Their rotation is expected to be gutted, with pretty well everyone available on the market. Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler are the most likely to get moved, with Jacob deGrom to a lesser degree getting attention.

For the Mets to entertain a deGrom deal, a team is going to have to come to them with quite the offer. Then there is Jason Vargas who has elevated his value this season. There hasn’t been much talk about Vargas getting dealt, but it might be the time to deal him as well.

He did nothing to help his value after taking a dent against the Marlins last night, though. Syndergaard is expected to get the start for the Mets on Saturday. He hasn’t been too great in 2019, as his value has taken a dive this season. The Marlins will turn to Zac Gallen on the opposite side. It will be just the fourth start of his career as a rookie in this one. Head below for our free Mets vs. Marlins pick.

N.Y. Mets vs. Miami Marlins Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Mets -146/Marlins +126
  • O/U: 7.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Noah Syndergaard (6-4, 4.68 ERA)
  • Zac Gallen (0-1, 4.50 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Noah Syndergaard will garner some attention from several teams around the majors, whether it’s smart or not, the Mets will be able to collect a pretty good haul for trading him. He is way off his career average this season. With an ERA of 4.68, this is the first year that he is on pace to finish with an ERA above 4.00.

Syndergaard hit a career-high of 2.60 in 2016 and has slowly gone backwards, albeit still nice numbers the last two years. He posted an ERA of 3.03 last season, so he’s been well off his 2018 numbers. What the Mets are going to say to other teams is that he has been sharp the past four years and he’s still only 26 years old, so this could just be an outlier season for him.

Playing on this team has to be demoralizing, so a change of scenery might be best for him. He has especially let himself go on the road, where he has posted a 5.02 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 43 innings. Overall, the guy is not as overrated as some people are making him out to be. But I will say, the way people are talking him up this year, he’s been a tad on the overrated side in 2019. As a 26-year-old, there is still plenty of time to get his stroke back, though. It hasn’t been there lately, as he’s posted an ERA of 5.94 and 1.68 WHIP in his last three starts.

We’ll see if he can top a rookie, who has been up and down in his first three outings. That’s what you are going to get with a rookie pitcher. His most effective start was against the Cardinals in his debut, where he allowed 1-run in 5 innings. The worst was his most recent outing. He allowed 2 earned runs in 2 innings and was pulled out of the game quickly.

With both of his previous two starts against the Nats, the Mets will be only the second major league team he’s pitched against. Syndergaard has not been feeling it this season, as he hasn’t had much motivation. That might come with a new team in a trade. On the other side for the Marlins, Gallen is a rookie who is going to be spotty. With a record of -105 on the OVER at 7.5, this looks like a fairly decent value bet Saturday.

The Bet
OVER 7.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.