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Mets vs. Marlins MLB Pick – June 28th

We picked up a dramatic winner last night with the Diamondbacks storming back to walk off in 6-5 fashion against the struggling St. Louis Cardinals. It made for a third straight posted pick winner and three straight underdogs as well. Hopefully we can keep that underdog value streak running tonight.

Speaking of running, I’m pretty sure the Nationals just stole another base while I was writing… The Cubs have 99 Problems, and holding on base runners is definitely one. Jake Arrieta and company yielded a Washington franchise-record seven stolen bases last night and it is becoming evident that neither of the Cubs aces (Jon Lester) can do much to hold on base runners. It’s a small part of the game that is often overlooked, but as yesterday displayed loudly, it is a deficiency that can lead to disastrous consequences. The Cubs loss didn’t hurt them in the standings as the Reds downed division leader Milwaukee 8-6 in a Great American slugfest, but they are once again just a single game over .500 and facing Stephen Strasburg as the season’s midpoint nears…

There’s some nice action today, including resurgent Adam Wainwright trying to knock off Zack Godley in Arizona and the fun Battle for L.A. in Anaheim. Let’s dive in.

Today’s MLB Pick:

New York Mets -102 at Miami Marlins -109 (Total: 9.5)
Steven Matz (1-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. Jeff Locke (0-3, 5.70 ERA)

Things have been pretty bleak in New York this season, but perhaps a date with the Marlins and struggling Jeff Locke will be a recipe for a positive result. Locke has yet to win a game with the Marlins and has lasted just four innings in each of his last two outings. To make matters even worse, New York has not been a friendly foe. Locke has a 0-2 record with a 6.63 ERA in his career against the Mets.

Steven Matz might not be the starter the Mets planned on pinning their season hopes around, but troubled times lead to interesting circumstances. Robert Gsellman became the sixth Mets starter this season to suffer an injury yesterday, joining bigger names like Syndergaard and Harvey on the shelf. The good news is, Matz has actually been fantastic in his career against the Marlins, positing a slim 1.59 ERA in his brief career. I expect him to fare well tonight, even on the road. Miami has gone 14-4 in their last 18 games at home, but momentum is only as strong as today’s starting pitcher. I’ll take Matz over Locke in this instance, especially with a slight underdog value.

Today’s MLB Pick: NEW YORK METS TO WIN -102

 

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