Mets vs. Marlins MLB Pick – May 17th

The New York Mets and Jacob deGrom go into the weekend against the Miami Marlins following a tough loss in Washington. The Mets won the series opener, 6-2, on Tuesday and then dropped the next two to fall back to 20-22 on the season. In what was a hot start for the Mets to start the season, they’ve tailed off and are falling out of favor in the NL East. They find themselves 3.5 games behind the Phillies for 1st in the division and are losers in six of their last ten games.

They were on a three-game winning streak before dropping two games in a row. The Mets have plenty of work to do if they want to hang with the Phillies and Braves. It’s not particularly a strong division, I don’t foresee anyone coming out of the National League from the NL East, though it’s likely going to be a close race for the divisional crown in September.

The Mets must get better play out of Robinson Cano. He was brought in to help an offense that was abysmal a season ago and hasn’t contributed much. He was pretty well a bust in Seattle as a Mariner, so not much has changed. I’m not so sure the Mets should have expected to get a solid ROI in Cano.

He has connected for just 3 home runs and is hitting .257. Cano was injured and struggled in his final season in Seattle last year. He hit just 10 long balls, though he had an adequate average of .303 at the plate. Having said that, Cano is a guy who needs power numbers to justify his contract.

The 39 home runs and .298 average he notched in 2016 looks like a tall order to match now. The Mets need his power game to open up. Jacob deGrom appears to be back in the saddle, though, as he is beginning to look like himself after a brief stretch of okay play. Head below for our free Mets vs. Marlins pick.

N.Y. Mets vs. Miami Marlins Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Mets -250/Marlins +210
  • O/U: 6.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Jacob deGrom (3-4, 3.26 ERA)
  • Trevor Richards (0-5, 4.46 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

The Mets need deGrom to pitch like he did last season, but we quickly found out that just that isn’t going to be enough. They finished with a record of 77-85, which was good for 4th in the NL East despite a picture perfect season by deGrom. Management addressed the issue, but acquiring Cano was never a sure thing.

They missed out on the big name tickets and had to settle for a trade for Cano. deGrom is back on point, though, and that’s a really good sign. After allowing 5 runs in 4 innings against the Brewers, deGrom has allowed just 3 runs in three outings. He owns an ERA of 1.29 with a 0.76 WHIP in his previous three outings. deGrom has been much better on the road as well, with an ERA of 1.80 and 0.96 WHIP as opposed to a 4.91 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home.

He recently dominated the Marlins, allowing just 1 run across 7 innings in a 4-1 victory. In 122 at-bats, the Marlins have connected for only 1 deep ball and a batting average of .230. Brian Anderson is responsible for the only home run against deGrom. In deGrom’s last 14 innings pitched against the Marlins, he has allowed only 1 run and 8 hits across two starts.

We should see deGrom at peak Cy Young level tonight against the Marlins. Meanwhile, Trevor Richards has been struggling to find a rhythm. He wanted a breakout campaign, but he isn’t getting what he hoped for. In his second season, Richards showed moments of good stuff as a rookie. He looks like the same guy who posted an ERA of 4.42 a season ago. Richards goes into Friday with an ERA of 4.46 and 1.37 WHIP. The Mets have been solid against Richards, as they’re hitting .316 with 3 long balls in 57 at-bats. Consider the Mets in this spot to win by 2 runs or more Friday evening in Miami.

The Bet
METS -1.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.