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Mets vs. Marlins Pick MLB – July 29th

We cashed the UNDER 7 in the Pirates/Marlins game yesterday to cap off a very profitable week. With only one loss, it was one of the best weeks I have had handicapping here. You’re only as good as your last win, or so they say, so let’s try and cash another winner Monday night. The card for tonight is kind of scarce, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make money off it. I’m going to turn to a familiar friend for tonight once again.

Free MLB Pick:

New York Mets +100 at Miami Marlins -120 (Total: 7.5)

Jeremy Hefner (4-8, 4.17 ERA) vs. Jacob Turner (3-3, 2.49 ERA)

The Mets and Marlins are both major disappointments in 2013. Well, actually I don’t know if I can go as far to say that the Marlins have been a disappointment, because this was to be expected from them. As sad as it is I think many people projected them to be even worse than they have been. Pitching has been keeping the Marlins somewhat afloat, if you can call it that. I feel bad in a sense for the Marlins’ pitching staff, as they actually aren’t that bad at all. They may not have recognizable names to a casual fan, but all of them have been doing quite well. The former Detroit Tigers’ prospect, Jacob Turner, is no exception.

Turner sat in the Tigers’ system as their best pitching prospect for years before getting sent to the Marlins. Turner made a few spot starts as a Tiger, but is finally getting a chance to show what he is capable of with the Marlins. He won’t have a chance at winning a World Series anytime soon with the Marlins like he did with the Tigers, but he does have the opportunity to pitch without much pressure on his back in Miami. Turner brings an ERA of 2.49 to Monday night, with some fantastic results at home. In this capacity, Turner has an ERA of only 1.80 in Miami with a 3-0 record. His WHIP is excellent too, holding a 0.93. Even more staggering is the fact that he hasn’t allowed a single home run at home in 30 innings of work!

Mets’ starter, Jeremy Hefner, had himself a nice start to the season, playing second fiddle to Matt Harvey, but he has since fallen off since then. Hefner has a respectable 4.17 ERA, but his most recent starts have been miserable. In his last three, Hefner has tossed an ERA of 10.12. With most of that coming in his last two starts against the Braves and Phillies. Hefner’s saving grace in this game is that he is facing one of the most brutal offenses in all of baseball. If the Marlins are going to win games, it is going to be of the 2-1 or 3-2 variety like yesterday.

I think this game is a nice bounce back start for Hefner. If you need a big comeback from a porous outing the game before, the Marlins are a team you want to see on the schedule. Take away the last two starts and he has been lights out, and I think for at least a night, he gets back to form. Conversely, Turner should be able to take care of a below average offense at home. It is the battle of the 4th and 5th team in the NL East, so I’m not sure too many are interested in this epic matchup. Nonetheless, all I see is green with another low scoring Marlins’ game, so I am making the UNDER 7.5 my play for Monday night.

Free Pick: UNDER 7.5