An effective way to lose an Under 11.5 bet is for one team to have an eleven run seventh inning. Alas, such was life last night as my UNDER pick was actually looking pretty good as both starting pitchers navigated two of the best lineups in baseball and the thin air of Coors Field with pretty solid skill. Their bullpen counterparts, um, did not.
The result was an insane 15 runs in the final three innings, so, um, yeah… we lost that pick. The loss snapped a modest two game winning streak but still left us a solid +236 for the season thanks to some nice underdog plays along the way. We will try to have a big weekend and close out the first month of the MLB marathon in winning fashion.
The schedule tonight has some clear highlights – the Red Sox and Cubs is the World Series Preview television execs fantasize about (you can catch the game on MLB Network), and the Mets trying to keep pace with the Nationals who are threatening to run away early) in an epic pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. And of course, if you like the ongoing story of teams rising from the ashes to compete, the Rockies and Diamondbacks is a fun weekend of NL West contenders.
Let’s start the weekend off with a winner!
Today’s MLB Pick:
New York Mets +158 at Washington Nationals -168 (Total: 7)
Jacob deGrom (0-1, 2.55 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (3-1, 1.95 ERA)
You could surmise the NL East standings just by keenly observing two facts about tonight’s game. First, Jacob deGrom enters with a 2.55 ERA, and doesn’t own a win this season. Secondly, Jacob deGrom is on the mound for the Mets and they are a whopping +155 underdog.
And the line isn’t a crazy one. Washington is hitting in a way that makes the entire MLB shudder. They have tallied 52 runs in their last five games, and YES, they played four at Coors Field, but the entire season sample is similarly awesome. Bryce Harper is running away with the MVP Award and hiding, off to a .418 start with eight homeruns. Ryan Zimmerman is hitting .387 with eight HRs, Trea Turner has been the best catalyst in baseball, hitting .347 and swiping bags and taking extra bases and Daniel Murphy is hitting .320 with five HR’s. It is an absolutely murderous lineup and every key cog is clicking right now.
To make matters worse for deGrom tonight, his former teammate Daniel Murphy REALLY likes facing his old squad. In 22 career games against the Mets he is hitting .386 with eight HR’s and 25 RBI’s. It is both impressive and humorous at the same time – like it is hard to imagine he can hold his bat with both middle fingers fully extended to his former employer…
It’s not every day you can get deGrom at such a lofty line, but it feels dangerously optimistic to fade the Nationals right now. In fact, given Scherzer’s career success against his rivals from NY, I am going to go a little bolder and grab some plus money on the runline. I think Scherzer blanks a lineup that will likely be missing Cespedes once again after his fourth-inning departure with hamstring issues last night and that deGrom will not be able to completely cool off the hottest lineup on Earth.
I think Washington gets at least four or five runs and allows next to nothing.
Today’s MLB Pick: WASHINGTON NATIONALS RUNLINE (-1.5) +130