Sometimes you just have to admit things aren’t going your way right now. As great as the NBA playoffs and final two months of the regular season have gone (still well over 60% ATS), the first month of the MLB season hasn’t been nearly as kind. We took another tough loss last night as the Reds seventh inning woes continued; allowing three runs to the Pirates to push the total OVER, despite the fact the Pirates had scored only five runs over their previous 53 innings.
It’s a long season, and I have no doubts there will be several more ups and downs but there have been two tough losing streaks already, so it is high time to get on the right side of the wave and get things back to level. So let’s start tonight. There are a full slate of fresh series and good pitching matchups to choose from, so let’s dive in to today’s free pick.
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Today’s Free Pick:
New York Mets -129 at Philadelphia Phillies +122 (Total: 6.5)
Matt Harvey (5-0, 2.41 ERA) vs. Cole Hamels (1-3, 4.14 ERA)
Tonight, on center stage, the Dark Knight of Gotham (yes, I know I have been snarky and skeptical of the nickname in the past) Matt Harvey of the New York Mets versus Cole Hamels of the auditioning for any team but the Phillies to pick him up in the next few months!
But in all seriousness, there will be a buzz in the air as these two high profile hurlers link up tonight in an otherwise nondescript game. The Mets have been one of the pleasant surprised of the early season, and though they have cooled off a bit, they are still in first place and appear to be legitimate contenders in the NL East this season. Matt Harvey will put his perfect 5-0 mark on the line tonight against the struggling Phillies and their somewhat-struggling ace.
Cole Hamels is the best Philly has to offer, but yet the Phills are just 2-4 in games he has started. His 4.14 ERA and 1.35 WHIP are below his usual standards, but the paltry 1.7 average runs in support ranks second to last in the National League, so perhaps there is a slight frustration factor at play or a little “over-pitching” and trying to be too perfect, as he knows that’s really his only chance to win.
Meanwhile, Harvey has been the opposite story. He is personally 5-0 and has earned the win in every 2015 appearance. His 0.91 WHIP indicates he DESERVES good things to happen on the mound, but 6.2 runs in support certainly gives a pitcher some wiggle room. I don’t think the Mets will light up the board for six or seven tonight, but I do think they’ll give him enough to win; again.
The Phillies don’t hit when Hamels pitches. And they don’t hit much in general. They are hitting just .222 as a squad and averaging around 2.8 runs. That ain’t gonna get it done, especially tonight.