Mets vs. Pirates MLB Pick – August 3rd

The New York Mets’ seven-game winning streak came to an end with an 8-4 loss in Pittsburgh last night. The Mets got out to a 3-0 lead and Steven Matz was chewing up hitters until he wasn’t. Matz fell apart and the Pirates were able to pick on him to chase him out of the contest after 3.2 innings of work. Despite the loss, the Mets are 7-1 in their previous eight games.

The bad about failing to get their eighth in a row is that the Mets need all of the wins they can get now. They are still in a hole and can’t afford to play average to good baseball. The Mets are going to have to play excellent baseball to catch a wildcard. As it stands now, they’re 11 games behind 1st in the NL East and 4.5 out of the play-in game.

4.5 games isn’t exactly close, especially in the National League where there are several teams still alive. That’s exactly why people were questioning this move for Marcus Stroman. Trading for Stroman doesn’t guarantee anything for the Mets. It makes their rotation dangerous, but they have a hill to climb still. I will say that they didn’t have to give up much for Stroman, though. If they did, the deal likely doesn’t get done.

Last season, the Pirates, or at least in my opinion at the time, made a heard scratching move for Chris Archer. Fast forward a year and I was right to scratch my head over the deal. Archer isn’t playing up to expectations and the Bucs are going nowhere. Now they are stuck with an expensive contract, while the Rays have a solid pitcher and hitter. Stroman and Archer will face off tonight, with Stroman making his first start as a member of the Mets. Head below for our free Mets vs. Pirates pick.

N.Y. Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Mets -130/Pirates +110
  • O/U: 9

Pitching Matchup:

  • Marcus Stroman (6-11, 2.96 ERA)
  • Chris Archer (3-8, 5.58 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

The Mets are praying and hoping that Stroman can bring the same level of play he did to the Blue Jays in 2019. His trade value was at an all-time high when the Jays let go of him, but did they get a fair deal? You would have thought they were going to get at least a top-100 prospect.

Stroman comes over from Toronto with a solid ERA of 2.96, though a less than ideal record of 6-11. That’s what happens when you play on a bad ballclub. The Mets are a better all-around team, but I don’t think this is what he envisioned. He probably preferred to go to the other team in New York, where he stands a much better chance at a World Series. In any case, the Mets have a pretty potent rotation with Stroman included.

Stroman enters Saturday pitching extremely well, as he’s posted an ERA of 1.80 and 1.05 WHIP in his previous three outings. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs since June 7th against the Diamondbacks. And pitching on the road in his first outing as a Met shouldn’t become an issue. Stroman has had no issues pitching well on the road, with a 2.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 55.1 innings. The Pirates have scored 4 runs with no home runs against Stroman in 39 at-bats.

On the other hand, the Mets have scored 19 runs with 2 home runs against Archer in 129 at-bats. Archer just really hasn’t been feeling it in Pittsburgh. I’ve always regarded him as one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball. Archer hasn’t had his ERA below 4.00 since 2015, so in what realm is he a really good pitcher like you hear from people.

Now, though, no one can deny that is not good. Archer enters this one with an ERA of 5.58 and 1.44 WHIP in 101.2 innings. In his previous three tilts, he’s posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. It’s been over a month since he’s allowed less than 3 runs in a start. I think there’s a good chance Stroman sees a nice start to his career with the Mets and they are able to do enough damage to Archer for a win on Saturday.

The Bet
METS
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.