Mets vs. Reds MLB Pick – August 30th

Both the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds have lost seven of the last nine games tonight’s respective pitchers have gone to the mound, so something has to give, right? The Mets bullpen was heavily taxed last night in a blowout loss, but the Reds bullpen could be called into action early with Homer Bailey on the bump, they are the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Someone has to actually win, but this game has “ugly bullpen mop-up” written all over it…

Elsewhere in the NL, the Dodgers took an extremely rare third-straight loss, losing 7-6 to the Diamondbacks, Giancarlo Stanton hit his 18th homerun of the month of August to push his staggering total to 51 on the season in a Marlins loss, and the Cubs won while the Brewers lost to extend their NL Central lead to 3 ½ games. There are some big games on the docket today including a big matinee between the Brewers and Cardinals, the Rockies Chad Bettis continues his amazing comeback at home against the Tigers, and Stephen Strasburg will attempt to keep Giancarlo under control. It should be a great day of MLB action. Let’s see if we can grab a winner after yesterday’s ugly loss.

Today’s MLB Pick:

New York Mets +123 at Cincinnati Reds -133 (Total: 10)
Rafael Montero (2-9, 5.64 ERA) vs. Homer Bailey (4-6, 7.99 ERA)

This is about as ugly a combined stat line as you will see for two pitchers with double-digit starts. Both have astronomical ERA’s, and Montero’s 2-9 record is one of the worst in baseball among qualified pitchers. But something has to give tonight, right?

Well, maybe not. One team will win, obviously, but it doesn’t mean either starting pitcher will get off the schnide. The Reds are one of three teams in baseball with five players over twenty home runs. Expect them to generate some offense off Montero tonight in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Meanwhile, Homer Bailey is coming off an extra four days of rest, but it seems like it is going to take more than rest to get the oft-injured 31-year old veteran back on track. He has allowed five or more runs in four of his last seven starts, which bodes well for the Mets offense tonight.

The Mets are 8-1 SU in their last nine games in Cincinnati, but I have some apprehension with that trend, given how good the Mets have been the last few years and how BAD they are right now; it is two different teams. I am more on board with the fact that 16 of the Reds last 22 games have gone OVER and 9 of their last 12 home games have gone OVER. The Mets have averaged 6.3 runs in their last ten games, so some fireworks seem imminent tonight.

I’ll take the offenses to have some fun this evening at GABP.

Today’s MLB Pick: RUN TOTAL OVER 10 (-105)

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