Mets vs. Reds MLB Pick – September 20th

The New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds meet for a three-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds have nothing to play for, but they can still put a massive dent in the Mets’ odds of getting into the postseason. Their odds aren’t the best as things currently stand, but they are still alive in the race. The Mets enter 3.5 games back of the Brewers for the final wildcard.

With a win for the Brewers yesterday, they take sole possession of the wildcard. The Cubs fall out and are suddenly a game behind the Brew Crew. Remember that this is a team who lost their best hitter and possibly the best hitter in baseball. Everyone has rallied around the Christian Yelich injury and have really stepped it up.

That isn’t good news for the Mets, who need to find a way to overcome a 3.5-game lead with just over a week left in the regular season. The most likely scenario is that the Mets run out of time and don’t find the hot switch before next week. Following Cincinnati, the Mets are at home for their seven remaining games.

The Mets have four games against the beatable Marlins coming up, so the schedule does favor them. A three-game series against the Braves looks tricky, but the Braves may be getting ready for the postseason at that point and go through the motions. Take care of business in Cincinnati and sweep the Marlins, then things are going to begin to look mighty interesting.

They’re going to need help, though. Winning out could still result in them coming up short. Jacob deGrom will be asked to get the Mets a victory to open this series in Cincinnati. It isn’t an auto win with Luis Castillo on the other side, though. Head below for our free Mets vs. Reds pick.

N.Y. Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Mets -148/Reds +128
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Jacob deGrom (9-8, 2.61 ERA)
  • Luis Castillo (15-6, 3.22 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

If you were to blindly compare rotations in the National League on paper without looking at anything else, the Mets would likely be selected to go to the postseason in 9 out of 10 people. However, the Mets are 3.5 games back and may have nothing to show for their trade for Marcus Stroman. Their prized acquisition at the trade headline has regressed from his time with the Blue Jays. Stroman was flying with the Blue Jays this season, but has looked rather average in Queens.

DeGrom was looking average early in the season, though he must have remembered that he’s a Cy Young pitcher and started playing like it. He’s going into Friday with just 1-run allowed in his last 14 innings on the bump. In 11 out of his last 13 outings, deGrom has allowed 2 or fewer runs. In 19 of 22 games, he’s allowed 2 or fewer runs, with just two games with more than 3 runs earned runs allowed.

The Reds have been deemed useless against deGrom in his career. In 117 at-bats, the Reds have hit no home runs and recorded just 2 runs. Joey Votto and Freddy Galvis are the only players on their roster that have notched RBI’s with deGrom on the mound. With the Mets’ season on the line, expect deGrom to play the part of defending Cy Young winner on Friday evening in Cincinnati. He’s also been better on the road this season, with a 2.53 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Mets’ hitters are not going to have an easy pass against Luis Castillo, though. Castillo has done a great job at limiting the Mets’ offense in his career. They are hitting only .217 with 1 home runs and 3 runs scored in 46 at-bats. Castillo has been tough to beat at home, where he has posted a 2.85 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 113.2 innings in 2019. Expect a matchup of the lower scoring variety, with the UNDER looking solid.

The Bet
UNDER 8
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.