Mets vs. Reds MLB Pick – September 22nd

The Mets’ postseason chances are on life support, but they aren’t dead yet. Following a 3-2 loss against the Cincinnati Reds yesterday, the Mets are 4.5 games back of a wildcard. That doesn’t leave much room at all for them to mount a comeback. They so beautifully stormed back to catch the attention of everyone, but their push in September hasn’t been as impressive. The Marcus Stroman trade looked like it was going to pay off wonderfully for a minute there, but then the Mets remembered that they were the Mets and regressed hard.

Despite going on a three-game winning streak, the Mets really needed to extend it to a fourth last night. They came up short in that regard and are going to need to get hot today. With a nice run this upcoming week and some luck, the Mets could still steal a spot in the Wild Card Game. That would require bypassing the Cubs and Brewers. The Cubs are 3 back, while the Brewers are in possession of the final wildcard. Bryce Harper’s former team, the Nationals, would be hosting the Wild Card Game against Milwaukee.

The Mets got a great start out of Zack Wheeler, but the offense disappeared and failed to provide much run support. Wheeler went 7 strong innings, allowing just 1 earned run in his time on the bump. Reliever, Justin Wilson, was tagged for a run in the 8th which was ultimately the difference in the contest. The Reds started early with 2 runs in the 1st inning and then came through late when they needed a run. The Mets will need another strong performance from their starting hurler in this one. Marcus Stroman is scheduled for the Mets, while the Reds are likely to go with former Indian, Trevor Bauer. Head below for our free Mets vs. Reds pick.

N.Y. Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Mets -125/Reds +105
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Marcus Stroman (10-9, 4.16 ERA)
  • Trevor Bauer (11-12, 4.41 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

We’re going to find out on Sunday if the Mets have motivation to go on a run or if they’ve looked at the standings and believe it’s too tough. They have to somehow find what sparked them at the end of July. Variance in the wrong direction can be a tough thing for a team to take. In any case, it isn’t like the Mets have been playing bad baseball of late. They are 8-4 in their previous 12 games, which includes wins over the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Reds.

This game was originally scheduled to go to Steven Matz, but the Mets are flipping starts. On the surface, it looks like a really good idea. Matz has struggled on the road and hasn’t had a good feel of things outside of Citi Field. They can’t afford to allow Matz to pitch on the road when they can flip Matz and Stroman. This should present a nice spot for Stroman as well. He has had a good history against the Reds, as they’ve hit just .208 with no home runs allowed against him.

Stroman has been the much better pitcher on the road in 2019. He enters with an ERA of 2.60 and 1.19 WHIP as opposed to a 3.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Stroman is coming off his best performance as a Met in Colorado. He shut the door on the Rockies, allowing no runs and just 4 hits in 7 innings of play. Stroman has allowed just 1-run in his previous 13.1 innings on the bump. In his last three outings, he’s posted an ERA of 1.80 and 1.05 WHIP in 20 innings to go into this important matchup with some heat.

His counterpart this afternoon, Trevor Bauer, has been pitching better recently, but has been a different guy in Cincinnati. After posting a 3.79 ERA in 24 starts with the Indians, Bauer has regressed with a 6.39 ERA in 9 starts as a Red. The Mets have been solid against Bauer in their careers, with 4 home runs and 13 runs scored in 101 at-bats. Look for the Mets to finish off the weekend with a win in Cincinnati on Sunday behind Stroman.

The Bet
METS
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.