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Mets vs. Reds Pick MLB – Sept 27th

The New York Mets continued their weekend destruction of the Cincinnati Reds yesterday, piling up even more runs in a third straight victory. The game would be a rather non-descript one, if not for the fact that it coincided with the Mets clinching their first division championship in a decade and locked up their long-inevitable playoff berth. Congrats to the Mets. The National League playoffs should be a blast, loaded with glamour franchises and big name stars.

Meanwhile, the American League is still in massive flux with one week to go after the Angels and Astros each got massive wins. We snapped a brief losing streak last night with the Angels walkoff winner and will try to start a winning streak by stacking a second winner today.

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Today’s Free Pick:

New York Mets -107 at Cincinnati Reds -103 (Total: 7.5)

Jacob deGrom vs Keyvius Sampson         

The last time deGrom pitched in this ballpark things went pretty well. All he did was turn in one of the most dominant innings in the history of the All Star Game, striking out the side on ten pitches.   Tonight he will make his first start in nearly two weeks with the hope that the rest will revitalize the young star.

The Mets are 18-10 in games deGrom has started and with an offense that has already scored 28 runs against the Reds this series, it is nearly staggering to me that they aren’t -150 or greater today. How and WHY is this line so reasonable?? Is it the fact that deGrom will likely not pitch many innings today? I’m OK with that, especially if he leaves in the fifth with a giant lead (like Harvey on Saturday). Is it because a lot of big bats are on the bench; Cespedes, Duda and Wright?  I’m OK with that too.  Is it because the baseball gods tend to balance things out in the course of a four game series? Well, the Mets have swept their last three four game series. Is it Keyvius Sampson coming off a pretty good start against the Cardinals??

Um. No.

Sampson is 0-4 with an 8.46 ERA in his five starts in Great American Ball Park. He is going to get shelled today as well. I’d lay a TON more to get the Mets today, so I don’t want to sound overly confident considering they don’t have Duda, Cespedes or Wright in the lineup – but this still feels like one of the most generous lines I’ve encountered this entire baseball season.   I’m big on NY today.

Sure, they’ve already clinched, they’ve got nothing to play for, deGrom will be on a definite speed governor today, etc. But couldn’t all the same “useless, meaningless game” platitudes apply to the Reds as well? In which case, you are simply fading Keyvius Sampson and the worst team in baseball post Break.

Free Pick: New York Mets to WIN -107