The Subway Series heads to Yankee Stadium for the second time in 2018, and the second in less than a month. The Mets and Yankees met on July 20th-21st and they took a split in a brief two-game series. The Yanks took two of three at Citi Field in June. The Mets managed to block a sweep in the series finale with a 2-0 win. The stakes aren’t too high for the Mets in this one, but the Yankees are still fighting to reach the postseason.
With the AL East looking out of reach, the next best thing for the Yankees will be going for a wildcard. They were a wildcard in 2017 and beat the Twins in the one-game play-in contest. The Twins have regressed significantly and will be missing out on the postseason this year. Meanwhile, the Yankees look like they’re heading to the same game despite the acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton got off to a slow start this season and then the Yankees ran into injury problems recently with Aaron Judge’s broken wrist.
The Yankees say they are optimistic about his wrist, but that usually tells me that they aren’t exactly clear about his return. They hope he will get back to swinging a bat next week, so there really is no definite timetable for getting him back. The Yanks averaged 5.19 runs per game in 2017.
They are scoring 5.18 runs per game this year, so there hasn’t been much of a noticeable bump with the arrival of Stanton. However, if they didn’t acquire Stanton and without Judge right now, there’d be a much bigger hole in the lineup. Luis Severino will hope to turn things around for the Yankees this evening. He’s been off recently which isn’t going to work if the Yankees want to go far. Severino is their ace and they need him hot down the stretch. Cy Young favorite, Jacob deGrom, will start opposite Severino this evening at Yankee Stadium. Head below for our free Mets vs. Yankees pick to get your week started.
N.Y. Mets vs. N.Y. Yankees Pick
Jacob deGrom (6-7, 1.77 ERA) vs. Luis Severino (15-5, 3.11 ERA)
We all know how much of a flamethrower Luis Severino is. He’s consistently the hardest throwing pitcher in baseball. Severino hasn’t played the part lately, though, and it’s starting to scare some Yankees’ fans. As long as Severino is feeling it at the right time at the end of September, the Yanks should be okay, though.
This is likely just an outlier for Severino who has otherwise been good. Around the middle of July something started to go wrong for him. Severino has still been special at home, as he enters Monday with a record of 8-1, ERA of 2.31, and 0.96 WHIP at home. He has only had one bad spot at home, when he gave up 6 runs to the Royals. Severino has held the Mets in check with a .182 batting average in 55 at-bats.
Severino takes on a Mets’ offense that is 26th in the majors with 3.93 runs per game. The Mets were lucky to win yesterday, as they won despite getting doubled up in the hit department. The Marlins had 10 hits, while the Mets only had 5 to win 4-3. I had the Marlins at plus-money, and at that price, still don’t feel bad about the bet.
Severino should use this game as a confidence builder against a bad offense. deGrom goes into Yankee Stadium hot as ever, pitching a 6 inning shutout against the Reds. He must stay away from Stanton, who has done a number on him in his career. Stanton is hitting .360 with 4 long balls against deGrom. We haven’t seen deGrom pitching at this level in prior years, though. In his last start against the Yanks, he allowed 2 runs in a 4-1 loss. I think we’re going to something similar here. Severino breaks out of his funk and looks good against a below average Mets’ offense and deGrom continues rolling Monday.