Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks – MLB May 10

9:40 p.m. ET – Marlins at Diamondbacks (-120 ML) O/U: 8.5

The 15-18 Marlins travel to Arizona to take on the 15-19 Diamondbacks for a four-game series to start the week. Miami is coming off a two-game losing streak, including a 2-1 loss to the Brewers in 10 innings despite allowing only one earned run for the game behind the strong seven-inning start from right-hander Sandy Alcantara. Arizona has lost six consecutive games, including a 4-2 loss to the Mets on Sunday afternoon after tallying only four hits on the day.

These two teams met for a three-game series early last week, when the Marlins swept the Diamondbacks by a whopping combined score of 20-4.

About the Marlins

Miami Marlins LogoDespite being the only team in the National League East with a positive run differential, Miami resides in fourth place in the division. The Marlins average 4.1 runs per game, which is the 10th– fewest among all MLB teams. The lineup features an interesting mix between veterans and elite prospects.

Leading the way has been left fielder Corey Dickerson, who is hitting .319 to start the year, with fellow veterans in Jesus Aguilar and Adam Duvall leading the way with six home runs apiece. Young prospect Jazz Chisholm Jr., the second baseman, has provided a nice spark plug, batting .290, four home runs and seven stolen bases.

The Marlins have allowed only 3.5 runs per game this season, which is the second-fewest in Major League Baseball. So their pitching has been keeping them in lots of ballgames.

About the Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks LogoArizona sits in fourth place in National League West, despite a division-worst 1-7 record in the month of May. The offense has been consistent this season, averaging the sixth-most runs per game in the big leagues at 4.8. Left fielder David Peralta leads the team with a .263 batting average and 23 RBI.

Second baseman Eduardo Escobar leads the team with seven home runs, despite a poor batting average of .222. The Diamondbacks pitching staff has struggled in the 2021 campaign, averaging 5.2 runs allowed per game, the fourth-most in MLB.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Miami Marlins +1½ (-180) +110 O 8½ (-120)
Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ (+160) -120 U 8½ (+100)

The Pitching Matchup

Miami is turning to 24-year-old Jordan Holloway to make his first career start in the majors after five bullpen appearances this season. The right-hander has yet to allow an earned run in 10 innings of work. His last outing was against this same Arizona team on May 5, when he three three scoreless innings in the longest stint of his brief MLB career.

Right-hander Luke Weaver is getting the nod for the Diamondbacks and has thrown 29.2 innings in 2021, while owning a 1-3 record with a 6.07 ERA. Weaver started the same game that featured Holloway last week when he allowed six runs in four innings of work. He has been in a downward spiral since he opened his season with 12.2 innings pitched and only three runs allowed through his first two starts.

What’s the Bet?
These two teams look relatively similar on paper, but when you dig a little deeper the Marlins have played much better baseball overall, especially of late. Only one game separates them in the National League standings, but Miami has a run differential of plus-20, which compares favorably to the negative-15 run differential that Arizona owns.

The best bet for this game is to not overthink it when making your straight-up pick. This matchup is very similar to the May 5 meeting between the clubs that resulted in a dominant Marlins win. That contest even featured the same two pitchers who will be starting for their respective clubs tonight. Miami at plus-money offers way too much wagering value to pass up.

Back the Fish as short road underdogs to pull off what will be an upset only on paper to open up this three-game set in the desert.
The Bets
Marlins ML
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Joe Menzer / Author

Joe is an award-winning writer and editor who has covered the NBA, NFL, NASCAR, golf, various collegiate athletics and other sports for newspapers, Turner Sports, Fox Sports and ESPN. He has been on the beat for seven Super Bowls, six Daytona 500s and numerous NBA playoff series and All-Star Games. He once was dispatched to Rome, Italy to spend time with an NBA draft choice who opted to play overseas, after which he produced an award-winning series of stories. He also is passionate about fantasy sports and breaking down games in ways that even novice gamblers can use to make their most intelligent wagering decisions.

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