Marlins at Padres MLB Betting Odds and Pick for May 5

OUR PICK

MARLINS

Thursday brings a fairly limited MLB slate, with just 10 games scattered throughout the day. Seven of them will take place after 6 pm, so you’ve still got more than enough time to get those bets in. One of the later games will take place in San Diego, where the Marlins will take on the Padres in the first of a four-game weekend series.

Miami comes into this one at 12-12 on the year, which is something of a surprise. Most prognosticators expected the Marlins to finish fourth the NL East, at best, this season. As of now, Miami is second in the loaded division behind the red-hot New York Mets.

On the other side of this game, we have a Padres team navigating some injuries. Fernando Tatis Jr. is still a ways off from returning from his broken wrist, while Luke Voit and Wil Myers are also on the injured list. More injuries to the pitching staff mean Nick Martinez will make another start on Thursday in the series opener.

The Marlins will counter with young lefty Jesus Luzardo, who has gotten off to a very strong start in 2022.

BetOnline oddsmakers like the Marlins to emerge victorious on the road in this one. Miami is a -120 moneyline favorite in a game that features an over/under of 7.5 runs.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins have played well for most of the first month of the season, but they enter this one in ragged form. Miami has dropped each of their last four games, including a supremely disappointing three-game sweep at home at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier in the week.

Needless to say, losing three straight to the lowly D-Backs wasn’t what the doctor ordered. Miami will have to beat the beatable teams on their schedule if they have aspirations of keeping pace with the Mets, Braves, and Phillies in this division. On the bright side, the Marlins had won seven consecutive games before their current four-game skid began on Sunday.

As mentioned, Luzardo has been a pleasant surprise in his first full season with the Fish.

The lefty was acquired at last year’s trade deadline from Oakland in exchange for Starling Marte. Luzardo was a former top prospect, though he struggled to put it all together during his time with the Athletics. So far, however, the move to Miami seems to have done him some good.

Luzardo, who is still only 24, is off to a 2-1 start with a 3.10 ERA through his first four outings of the year. His lone loss of the season was a rough outing against the Cardinals, but he hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his other three games against the Angels, Braves, and Mariners. Given the quality of competition, that’s a pretty impressive feat for the young southpaw.

Luzardo has 28 strikeouts through his first 20.1 innings of work on the year, as well.

San Diego Padres

The Padres generated plenty of World Series hype before last season, only to fall well short of expectations. San Diego wound up finishing third in the AL West, well behind the Giants and Dodgers. San Diego wasn’t nearly as hyped coming into 2022, but the lack of expectations is likely doing them some good. San Diego comes into this one with an impressive 16-9 record early on.

They’re at the back end of the rotation tonight, however. Nick Martinez, who was signed away from Japan after a few impressive seasons over there, will make his fifth start for the Padres tonight. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 4.12 ERA through his first four games back in the majors, but it hasn’t been the smoothest ride.

Control is an issue for Martinez, who has walked multiple hitters in each of his last three games. That includes nine walks over two starts against the Braves and Dodgers before a bounce-back effort the last time out against a dreadful Cincinnati offense.

If the Padres are going to get back into the win column tonight, they’ll likely need a big night out of Manny Machado. Machado has carried the Pads’ offense to this point, slashing .365/.436/.594 with five homers and 18 runs driven in already.

The Padres come into tonight’s game as winners of six of their last eight games. They split a doubleheader in Cleveland against the Guardians on Wednesday.

Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres MLB Game Pick

I think it’s only a matter of time until Martinez sees some regression on that 4.12 ERA.

Please Note:

Through four outings, Martinez has a SIERA of 4.71, which indicates his ERA to this point has been a little lucky. The Marlins’ patient lineup (9.3 percent walk rate) should be able to take advantage of Martinez’s aforementioned control issues.

Miami is a good value to win this one on the road. Luzardo looks like a potential All-Star, which tips the scales heavily in the Marlins’ favor. I’d expect a new-and-improved Marlins offense to do damage against Martinez in this one, while Luzardo should have an easier time shutting down a shorthanded Padres lineup.

Take the Marlins at -120 on the moneyline.

Pick:

Marlins

-120

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