Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – MLB May 11, 2021

The Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks meet for the second time in as many days on Tuesday night in the desert. They have three more games scheduled at Chase Field in this series after the Diamondbacks started the party with a 5-2 win. Jordan Holloway was tagged for 5 hits and 3 earned runs through 3.2 innings of work to put the Marlins in a 4-0 hole after the 3rd inning. Conversely, Luke Weaver showed up nicely for 6.1 innings of work for the D-backs.

Weaver conceded 4 hits and no runs during his time on the bump. These have been two mediocre teams so far in 2021. As far as the Diamondbacks are concerned, this has been par for the course for them. There weren’t any expectations for the Diamondbacks, and they’re in tough in the NL West. It isn’t just the LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres that they must contend with, but the San Francisco Giants have been the best team in the division to open the season.

The Diamondbacks are five games behind the Giants going into Tuesday night. The Giants edged out the Texas Rangers, 3-1, for another win last night. I don’t think the Giants are going anywhere, but holding tough when the Dodgers or Padres get hot is going to be key. Don’t concern yourself with the Diamondbacks. They don’t have the talent to go on a run to leapfrog the top-three. Having said that, the Diamondbacks should be a competitive team in two or three years if their young talent pans out right.

Miami is expecting to do something this season after bucking expectations in the 60-game campaign. They went to the postseason and finished with a record of 31-29 in the regular season. It wasn’t anything special, but the fact they’ve shown a lot of progress from just three years ago is a big positive. With a playoff berth last season comes expectations in 2021. The verdict is still out on the Marlins who’ve been up and down so far. They head into Tuesday with a record of 15-19 and trailing the divisional-leading Mets by 3.5 games.

The Marlins are expecting to go with Pablo Lopez on the bump in this one. Lopez has been showing a lot of progress over the last two years and continues to get better on the mound. Lopez will be countered by veteran Madison Bumgarner. His accomplishments speak for themselves, though he regressed hard last season. It carried over to open this season, but Bumgarner has been bouncing back in fine form recently. Head below for our free Marlins vs. Diamondbacks pick on May 11, 2021.

Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Betting Odds:


  • Marlins +1.5 (-210)
  • D-backs -1.5 (+180)

  • Marlins +104
  • D-backs -114

  • Over 8 (+105)
  • Under 8 (-125)


Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction:

Madison Bumgarner did not look like himself in his first season with the Diamondbacks in 2020. It was looking like buyer’s remorse for the Diamondbacks after they signed up following a standout career with the San Francisco Giants. Bumgarner posted an ERA of 6.48 through nine games. It had to be the most frustrated that Bumgarner has felt in his career.

At 31 years old, Bumgarner is far from over the hill at that age. There are plenty of pitchers that are 35+ still pitching at a high level, so wasn’t an excuse for Bumgarner. He goes into tonight with an ERA of 4.91 and 1.09 WHIP through 36.7 innings of work. After the Oakland Athletics scored 6 runs on him on April 12, something had to click for him because he’s looked like vintage Bumgarner since then.

In Bumgarner’s past four starts, he’s allowed just 3 earned runs across 24 innings of work. Note that Bumgarner owns a 1.00 ERA and 0.39 WHIP in his previous three starts. He has been on fire, with just 2 hits and 1 earned run allowed in his most recent start, which came against the Marlins in a 3-1 loss Thursday. Bumgarner has been lights out against this lineup in the past. In 59 at-bats, the Marlins are hitting .118 with 2 home runs versus Bumgarner. Expect him to continue pitching well after he clearly fine tuned his delivery.

Pablo Lopez may not need much run support to propel the Marlins to a win tonight, though. Like Bumgarner, Lopez has been on fire recently as well. He held the Diamondbacks to 3 hits and no earned runs through 5 innings on Thursday. Through his last four starts, Lopez has allowed just 1 earned run, so it isn’t just a case of the Diamondbacks hitting poorly. Overall, he has a 2.04 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 39.7 innings of work, and 0.50 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his previous three. The D-backs are hitting .207 against Lopez in 41 at-bats. I lean towards a low-scoring contest, so the UNDER makes sense at Chase Field.


Our Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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