Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick – MLB July 27, 2022

The Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds have two more games in a four-game series at the Great American Ball Park. They split the first two games, with the Reds doing everything right in the opener for an 11-2 win.

Trevor Rogers had a poor performance, as he was chased off the mound after allowing 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 3.2 innings. However, Pablo Lopez was able to do the opposite last night, as he delivered an Alcantara-like performance, with 2 hits and 1 earned run allowed in 7 frames.

GETTING THERE
The Miami Marlins aren’t ready to compete in the NL East. It’s a tough division with the Mets and Braves playing as well as they have been at the top. The rotation is in place, but the Marlins need to spend money for offensive help.

The Marlins are going into Wednesday evening with a record of 46-51 following the 1-run win at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds only found 2 hits in the game, while the Marlins were led by 11 hits.

Miami is 14 games behind the Mets for the lead in the NL East.

The Reds are last in the NL Central at 37-59 and 16 games out of first behind the Brewers. In the NL Central, it’s all two teams as well, with the Cardinals and Brewers dueling for the divisional title.

Cincinnati has been better over the last money, which included a five-game winning streak from July 7 to July 12. Since then, they’ve lost five of nine outings.

Braxton Garrett will look to keep it rolling for the Marlins on the mound after Lopez diced the Reds up. The three-year lefty has been coming on nicely after failing to make a mark in limited work in his first two seasons. Veteran flamethrower Luis Castillo is scheduled for the Reds at home.

Head below for our free Marlins vs. Reds prediction on July 27, 2022.

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-150) +132 Over 8 (-110)
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+130) -158 Under 8 (-110)
Team Data Miami Marlins Cincinnati Reds
Overall Record 46-51 37-59
Away/Home Record 24-29 21-30
Batting Average .238 .239
Batting Average Away/Home .231 .251
Runs Per 9 4.07 4.48
Team ERA 3.84 5.23
Team ERA Away/Home 4.03 5.15

Marlins vs. Reds Prediction:

Braxton Garrett has given the Marlins a decent lift in the rotation this season. He’s appeared in nine starts and has shown improvement. Garrett finished with an ERA of 5.87 and a 5.03 the previous two seasons.

He’s done steps to improve his game and it’s been showing this season.

Garrett is going into this start at the Great American Ball Park with an ERA of 3.42 and a 1.14 WHIP. The lefty has done a fine job and continues to show more confidence with each start.

LOOKING GOOD RECENTLY
The 24-year-old has been in top form as of late, with 4 hits and 1 earned run allowed in his previous 12 innings on the mound. Through his last three starts, Garrett has a 2.04 ERA and 0.62 WHIP.

Note that Garrett hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in five starts since June 28 on the road at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals. Since then, Garrett has allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in four of five attempts. Even more impressive, he’s allowed fewer than 5 hits in four straight.

The lefty has been in good form on the road with a 3.51 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

The Marlins’ offense has been so inconsistent that they’re likely going to need his arm. They’re 27th in the majors with a .677 OPS and 4.07 runs per 9 innings for 24th.

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

Marlins

  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 9-4 overall in their previous 13 games on the road
  • 7-2 overall in their previous nine third game of a series
  • UNDER is 8-2 in their previous ten games versus the Reds
  • UNDER is 10-4 in their previous 14 games at Cincinnati
  • UNDER is 3-1-1 in their previous five games versus a starter with a WHIP better than 1.15

Reds

  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 3-7 overall in their previous ten games versus the NL East
  • 9-1 overall in their previous ten games at home
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five third game of a series
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games at home versus a team with a losing record
  • UNDER is 8-2 in their previous ten games versus the Marlins

  • Luis Castillo has been sizzling hot recently and is likely in for another solid performance. Castillo has posted an ERA of 2.77 and a 1.08 WHIP through 78 innings. He started late this season, but is making up for it through 13 outings.

    In his previous three outings, Castillo has posted a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.

    Note that Castillo has yielded only 3 earned runs in his last four starts across 27 innings. He’s hot right now and should contain a Miami team that struggles to score consistently. The Marlins have notched 4 RBIs and 1 home run versus Castillo in 53 at-bats.

    This series has traditionally been low-scoring between the Marlins and Reds. Despite the 11-2 game, the UNDER is 5-1 in their last 6 or fewer runs in four matchups.

    I’m looking at the pitchers to deliver at the Great American Ball Park tonight. Look for the UNDER to be the play in Cincinnati.

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    Marlins vs. Reds Pick
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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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