Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Pick – MLB June 19, 2022

The Miami Marlins and New York Mets meet at Citi Field for the third of four games in Queens. The series finale will take place at Citi Field on Monday afternoon. The Mets can set up a sweep chance with a win this afternoon.

They are coming off a 10-4 and 3-2 win the past two days. In their most recent meeting, Taijuan Walker chewed up the Marlins with 2 hits and 1 earned run in 6.2 innings of work. Edwin Diaz gave up a run in the top of the 9th, but that was as close as the Marlins came on Saturday.

The Mets followed up with a close win after pulling away easily on Friday. The Mets are a 44-23 team with a 6.5-game lead on the Atlanta Braves.

They have been in control throughout this season, but the Braves have slowly inched closer to the Mets. Atlanta was on a 14-game winning streak, which recently came to an end in a 1-0 loss on Friday night.

Then the Braves lost yesterday afternoon again to give the Mets a breather. Things were about to get really close before these last two days. Miami isn’t an NL East title contender, but showing slow signs of improvement.

The Marlins are 28-35 and 14 games behind the Mets.

Miami is going into this afternoon with three losses in a row. They need to learn how to win more consistently. After winning four straight games, the Marlins have lost four of their previous five outings.

Sandy Alcantara is one constant for the Marlins. He’s a star for the Marlins and has been dependable in the rotation.

Alcantara is expected to get the starting call for the Marlins on Sunday afternoon. He should make it tough on the Mets to win three straight in this series—Chris Bassitt counters for the Mets against Alcantara.

Head below for our free Marlins vs. Mets prediction on June 19, 2022.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-185) +122 Over 7 (+100)
NY Mets -1.5 (+160) -145 Under 7 (-120)
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Team Data Miami Marlins NY Mets
Overall Record 28-34 43-23
Away/Home Record 13-20 22-9
Batting Average .241 .259
Batting Average Away/Home .230 .261
Runs Per 9 4.33 5.73
Team ERA 3.95 3.95
Team ERA Away/Home 4.43 3.87

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction:

Sandy Alcantara has developed into one of the National League’s best hurlers. He’s on a Cy Young run at the moment, but sufferers from playing on a bad team. Jacob deGrom had the same problem. However, deGrom was so good that it was impossible to ignore him.

Alcantara is having himself a deGrom-like season. When his contract is up, another team will throw a lot of money at him. The Marlins aren’t a team that likes to spend much money, so it’s questionable if they’ll want to retain his services.

Alcantara is entering this afternoon with an ERA of 1.68 and a 0.96 WHIP.

Alcantara hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in a start since May 6. He’s coming off one of his worst performances of the season, but don’t get too critical. When we say worst, this means 2 earned runs allowed in 7.2 innings of work.

In his previous three starts, Alcantara has notched a 0.76 ERA and 0.85 WHIP on the hill. The Mets are hitting .232 with 2 home runs in 107 at-bats versus the Marlins.

Run support from the offense can be spotty, though. They are going in a much better direction, but the Marlins can still be inconsistent offensively.

The Marlins are 15th in the majors with a team batting average of .243.

With Alcantara starting on Sunday, Chris Bassitt should have a lot of pressure on his shoulders. The Mets’ chances of success likely come down to Bassitt.

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games on a Sunday
  • 1-4 overall in their previous four games
  • 13-40 overall in their previous 53 games as an underdog on the road
  • 5-1 overall in thier previous six games after losing the first two games of a series
  • UNDER is 4-0-1 in Alcantara’s previous five starts


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 4-0 overall in their previous four games on a Sunday
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six third game of a series
  • 21-8 overall in their previous 29 games at home
  • 28-12 overall in their previous 40 games versus a eight-handed starter
  • UNDER is 7-3-2 in their previous 12 games on a Sunday

  • Bassitt is going into Sunday afternoon with an ERA of 4.01 and a 1.18 WHIP in 77 innings of work. He’s capable of posting better numbers than that production, though.

    Bassitt is coming off one of his best performances of the year.

    He looked fantastic against the Brewers, with 3 hits and no runs allowed across 8 innings of work. It was a nice response for him after getting roughed up for 6 earned runs to the Padres.

    Bassitt has been in better shape at Citi Field, with a 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP as opposed to a 5.46 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road. The Marlins are hitting .067 in 11 at-bats versus Bassitt.

    Backing the UNDER in a low-scoring game with Alcantara on the bump is never a bad option. We’re likely looking at another 3-2 final, with the UNDER a good bet at Citi Field.


    Marlins vs. Mets Pick
    UNDER 7
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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